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Nigar Hasanova

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Iranians have observed a day of mourning following twin bombings in the city of Kerman that killed and wounded numerous people at a commemoration ceremony for the late Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, marking the fourth anniversary of his assassination. The blasts resulted in at least 84 casualties, as reported by Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi.

The death toll was revised down on Thursday morning by the head of Iran's emergency services from an earlier figure of 95.

ISIS took responsibility for the attack through its Telegram channel. ISIS welcomed the 2020 death of General Soleimani, whose militias fought against them. Iranian officials said at least one blast was caused by a suicide bomber.

Speaking to Azernews regarding the bloody attacks, political expert Sadradding Soltan noted that on the 4th anniversary of Qassem Soleimani's death, Iranian authorities have been actively promoting the late General Qassem Suleimani, aiming to set an example for the new generation in the country. He said that the attacks can be interpreted as a form of social protest against the regime's neglect of various sections, particularly the low-income segment. This event sends a message to the Iranian authorities, indicating discontent within the society.

Sadraddin Soltan pointed out that while similar incidents have occurred in the past, this attack holds significance as a regional-level protest against the Iranian government. It comes amid Iran's attempts to influence neighboring countries, particularly during the Hamas-Israel conflict in the region. The commentator suggests that this might be a broader message of regional dissent against Iranian authorities.

"It is true that there have been similar incidents of attacks and explosions in Iran in the past. An explosion occurred in the mausoleum of the imam in a mosque in Mashhad, or explosions occurred in separate mosques. In 2018, there was an armed attack on the SEPAH parade in Ahvas. Many people were killed and injured. In other words, a message of protest is sent to the Iranian authorities and it is conveyed that there are protests in the society. This can be considered as a regional level message against the Iranian authorities. Because it is the Iranian regime that is trying to create chaos in all countries against the backdrop of the Hamas-Israel war in the region. In Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, it is the Iranian government that is most active in the territory of these four countries. Iranian government is trying so that Hamas can bring the Israeli war to a large-scale level in the region and expand it to the territory of 4-5 countries. The second version may be the message of the regional protest to the Iranian authorities," Sadraddin Soltan said.

Expert downplays the potential impact on the world's energy market, stating that it is unlikely for Iran to seriously affect global energy prices or close the Strait of Hormuz, given the resulting expansion of sanctions. He cites Ayatollah Seyyedali Homeini's call for restraint and a reduction in military operations against the US and Israel as an indication of Tehran's attempt to de-escalate tensions in the region:

"It is unlikely that this event will have such a serious impact on the world's energy market, or that the Iranian authorities will close the Strait of Hormuz after that. Because closing the Strait of Hormuz by Iran will expand sanctions and actions against it at the regional and international level. This may make it more difficult in Iran's current situation. From this point of view, I think it is difficult for Iran to seriously affect the price of energy carriers in the world market or to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Seyyedali Khomeini, even said yesterday that it is necessary to refrain from open military operations against the US and Israel, and also to limit attacks on US military bases in Syria and Iraq. With this, Ayatollah Khomeini is also evaluated as an attempt by Tehran to reduce tension in the region or to show that they are against any military conflict that may occur in the region in the future. In conclusion, I want to say that it is impossible for the Iranian authorities to close the Strait of Hormuz if the Iranian authorities choose to avoid a direct confrontation with the USA and Israel," the expert said.

Regarding the impact on Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus, expert notes that while no country is entirely immune to such attacks, Azerbaijan is less likely to be directly affected due to the absence of visible support for Soleimani or his ideologies in the country. Nonetheless, the events in Iran create regional tension, affecting relations to some extent within the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan:

"It is unlikely that these events will have such a serious impact on the South Caucasus. It is true that no country is immune from a bomb attack. Let's say that there are very few or no bloody events in Azerbaijan, according to the essence of Qassem Soleimani's ceremony. Because there are no SEPAH followers or those who love him in Azerbaijan, or if there are, they are not visible, and these events have no effect on Azerbaijan. It just creates tension in the region. Because the events in the territory of the neighboring country affect international relations in one way or another. Therefore, its impact on the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan may be of concern and human aspect," he added.

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