Azernews.Az

Qabil Ashirov

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Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are setting an ambitious but increasingly realistic economic target, raising bilateral trade to $1 billion by 2030. At first glance, the figure may appear to be simply another trade objective announced by two governments. In reality, however, the target could become part of a much broader transformation in economic relations between the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

The current trade figures show that momentum already exists, with bilateral trade reaching $307.3 million in 2025, representing a 14.6 per cent increase from the previous year. Besides, during the first six months of 2026, trade reached $170.3 million, up 30.8 per cent year on year. If this growth continues and is supported by new investment and business projects, the $1 billion target could become more than a diplomatic aspiration.

The most important aspect of the new initiative is that Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are not focusing exclusively on increasing the exchange of goods. Their discussions also emphasise investment cooperation, business-to-business contacts and regional partnerships. This is significant because sustainable trade growth usually depends on the development of productive relationships between companies, rather than on government agreements alone.

Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populous country and has a large domestic market, a growing industrial base and an increasingly outward-looking economy. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, has developed substantial transport, logistics and energy infrastructure and occupies a strategically important position between Central Asia and European markets. Their economic strengths are therefore complementary.

For Uzbekistan, deeper cooperation with Azerbaijan can provide additional opportunities to access international markets through the Caspian Sea and beyond. Azerbaijan’s ports, railways and logistics infrastructure can help connect Uzbek products with markets in the South Caucasus, Türkiye and Europe. For Azerbaijan, stronger ties with Uzbekistan offer access to one of Central Asia’s largest economies and create opportunities for Azerbaijani companies to expand their activities eastward.

This is where the Middle Corridor becomes particularly important. The development of the Trans-Caspian transport route has created new opportunities for countries along the route to strengthen trade and logistics links. Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan can benefit from this process not only as individual economies but also as partners within a broader Eurasian connectivity network.

However, achieving $1 billion in bilateral trade will require more than increasing the volume of existing exports. The two countries will need to expand the range of products and services they exchange. Cooperation in agriculture, food processing, chemicals, textiles, machinery, pharmaceuticals, logistics and technology could create new sources of growth.

Investment can be even more important. If companies from both countries establish manufacturing facilities, distribution centers or joint ventures in each other’s markets, bilateral trade can acquire a more permanent foundation. A company producing goods in Uzbekistan and using Azerbaijani transport infrastructure to reach European markets, for example, would contribute to trade, investment and connectivity at the same time.

The upcoming Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Interregional Forum in Tashkent can help move this process from government discussions to practical business cooperation. Such forums are most valuable when they result in contracts, joint ventures and long-term partnerships. The involvement of regional governments and private companies can also ensure that economic cooperation is not concentrated only in the capitals.

The $1 billion target should therefore be viewed as a starting point rather than an endpoint. If achieved, it would demonstrate that two economies separated by the Caspian Sea can build increasingly integrated commercial relationships despite their geographical distance.

More importantly, the cooperation between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan reflects a broader economic trend. Central Asia is becoming increasingly connected with the South Caucasus, Türkiye and European markets, while Azerbaijan is strengthening its position as one of the key links between these regions.

For both Baku and Tashkent, the opportunity is clear. Trade can provide immediate economic benefits, while investment, infrastructure and business partnerships can create lasting value. If the two countries successfully combine these elements, the goal of $1 billion by 2030 could mark not simply an increase in trade statistics, but the emergence of a deeper economic partnership connecting Central Asia with the wider Eurasian market.