From Russian orbit to US engagement: Syria’s pivot and its security consequences
Elnur Enveroglu
Read moreAhmad al-Sharaa’s pilgrimage to Washington and the concurrent, temporary easing of US sanctions mark a dramatic inflection point in Syria’s post-2011 trajectory. The meeting at the White House, given that it was itself historic, as no Syrian head of state had visited Washington previously, both symbolizes and accelerates Damascus’s rapid diplomatic rehabilitation. The US Treasury’s decision to suspend the imposition of certain Caesar Act measures for 180 days significantly reduces the economic and political costs of re-engagement, providing Moscow’s rivals with a brief window to shift the balance of influence within Syria.
To understand the strategic significance of that pivot, it helps to recall Syria’s recent history under Bashar al-Assad and the depth of Moscow–Damascus entanglement. Under Assad, Syria became a reliable client of Russia: Moscow supplied arms, provided decisive military intervention from 2015 onwards, and established permanent dual facilities, the naval logistics point at Tartus and the Khmeimim air base in Latakia, that guaranteed sustained Russian access to the eastern Mediterranean. That relationship was transactional and profound: Russia rescued a regime under existential threat, and in return extracted geopolitical leverage and a foothold for power projection.
Al-Sharaa’s ascent from insurgent commander to president after the fall of Assad represents an upheaval of that post-2015 order. Although his past as a rebel and militia leader complicates Western acceptance, his removal from the US terrorism blacklist and the lifting of UN sanctions have opened diplomatic space that simply did not exist under Assad. Those moves are not simply symbolic: sanctions relief facilitates investment, reconstruction contracts, and diplomatic normalisation, all levers that Washington can use to draw Syria into a different orbit.
If Washington genuinely welcomes and invests in al-Sharaa’s interim government, the immediate strategic consequence will be to erode Moscow’s monopoly of influence. Russia’s bases will remain a powerful bargaining chip. Moscow has in the past negotiated to retain Tartus and Khmeimim even while conceding other losses, but American economic incentives and political recognition can reduce the Kremlin’s relative indispensability. In practice, this is unlikely to be a clean subtraction of Russian power; rather, it will create a multipolar competition for influence in which Moscow’s military footprint becomes necessary but no longer sufficient to determine Syrian strategy.
This rebalancing has implications across Syria’s regional relationships. With Israel, Washington’s rapprochement provides added assurance to Jerusalem. Israel’s primary strategic concern is preventing a permanent hostile foothold in southern Syria, notably the transfer of advanced weaponry to anti-Israeli proxies. US engagement could lead to formalised security guarantees or monitoring mechanisms that reduce Israeli incentives for unilateral strikes, while making Syria a more predictable interlocutor. However, any Israeli comfort will depend on verifiable demilitarisation of certain zones and on guarantees that Russia (if present militarily) will not obstruct Israeli self-defence. The coexistence of Russian bases and renewed US influence will thus require intricate, tripartite de-confliction.
Turkiye’s relationship with Damascus will also be recalibrated. Ankara has long balanced between kinetic operations in northern Syria, a wary accommodation with Russia, and a transactional relationship with Kurdish forces. A Syrian government normalising with Washington could be an opportunity for Ankara to negotiate security guarantees in the border provinces and to secure a role in reconstruction contracts, provided Ankara’s core red lines (notably the containment of Kurdish autonomy on its border) are addressed. Conversely, if Ankara feels sidelined by a US-Syria détente that neglects Turkish security concerns, it could resume assertive cross-border measures or deepen ties with other regional partners to hedge its risk. The political skill will be to fold Turkish security requirements into any US-backed reconstruction and stabilisation architecture.
For Russia, the new normal would be that it keeps valuable military facilities and retains influence through military advisers, arms sales, and private military contractors, but loses the exclusive patronage that translated into broad political control. Moscow will likely pursue a pragmatic compromise: insist on formal protections for its bases while negotiating guarantees for its economic and military contractors, and demand payment or legal assurances for leaving. If Washington is willing to recognise those interests (for instance by tacitly guaranteeing Russia’s bases in exchange for Moscow abstaining from obstructing reconstruction finance), the Kremlin may accept a reduced role. But if Moscow perceives a strategic squeeze, especially if US reconstruction money corrodes Russian commercial interests, Moscow could respond by hardening its military posture or by leveraging other regional partners to complicate normalisation.
Three scenarios crystallise. First, a managed integration: Washington’s sanctions relief is sequenced, conditional, and paired with international reconstruction finance; Russia keeps its bases but accepts a reduced political role; Turkey’s security concerns are written into an international guarantee; Israel secures de-confliction and weapons restrictions. This would stabilise Syria and open reconstruction, but requires exceptional diplomatic choreography. Second, a competitive tug-of-war: the US and Russia both press for economic and security concessions, resulting in a fragmented Syria where external patrons carve spheres of influence and domestic reconciliation stalls. Third, a backlash scenario: Moscow resists accommodation, using military presence and proxy networks to frustrate US projects; Turkiye acts unilaterally; Israel conducts strikes; and Syria relapses into episodic conflict. The likelihood of each outcome will hinge on the scale and speed of Western financial commitments and on Moscow’s assessment of its ability to extract compensations.
Ultimately, Syria’s new orientation towards Washington offers both opportunity and peril. If Washington can translate diplomatic gestures into credible reconstruction finance, security guarantees, and inclusive political arrangements, Syria might shift from a Russian client state to a more pluralised geopolitical actor, anchored by Western economic ties. But durable peace will depend on accommodating the legitimate security interests of Israel and Turkiye, managing Russia’s military presence without provoking escalation, and building Syrian state institutions capable of absorbing aid without immediate capture by narrow political factions. The coming months, shaped by Washington’s policy choices and Moscow’s counter-moves, will determine whether al-Sharaa’s visit is the opening of a new chapter or merely a temporary realignment in a longer struggle for influence.
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Below are the sources that have been referenced.
3 - https://russiapost.info/politics/u-turn_in_syria?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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