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Nazrin Abdul

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At a time when global energy competition is intensifying, possessing energy resources is a significant advantage because, in many ways, energy equates to economic power. A strong economy, in turn, ensures influence on the global stage. In this context, it is essential to use both traditional energy sources efficiently and to leverage alternative energy resources. Azerbaijan’s economic strategy aligns precisely with this vision. The country employs a smart approach to utilizing its abundant carbon and hydrogen resources: it channels revenues from the oil and gas sector to diversify its economy and exports energy to major markets such as Europe. At the same time, Azerbaijan is not content with relying solely on fossil fuels—it is actively developing new alternative energy projects and launching large-scale initiatives for the direct export of this energy. Azerbaijan plays a dual role, both as a producer and as a transit hub, in the evolving regional energy landscape.

Azerbaijan continues to consolidate its position as a strategic energy partner for Europe. According to the Ministry of Energy, the total volume of natural gas supplied from Azerbaijan to Europe has now surpassed 50 billion cubic meters (bcm), a figure that highlights the country’s growing role in the continent’s energy landscape. This achievement comes through the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) - the final link of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) - which has become an essential element of the EU’s diversification strategy.

Since the TAP became operational in late 2020, the volume of exports has increased significantly, both in scale and geographic reach. Currently, Azerbaijani gas is supplied not only to immediate neighbors like Georgia and Türkiye, but also to 10 European countries, including major EU economies.

How Baku becomes crucial link in EU’s energy chain

The timing of Azerbaijan’s expanded gas exports coincides with a period of heightened volatility in global energy markets. The aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has spurred European countries to urgently seek alternative and reliable energy sources. Azerbaijan has emerged as a key player in this reconfiguration, providing a non-Russian source of natural gas delivered through secure and politically stable transit routes.

In 2024 alone, Azerbaijan exported 12.9 bcm of natural gas to Europe, representing more than half of its total exports. With demand increasing, 14 countries have now expressed interest in importing Azerbaijani gas, potentially adding another 14 bcm of demand to already contracted amounts. This signals strong and sustained confidence in Azerbaijan’s export capabilities and geopolitical reliability.

Azerbaijan’s capacity to meet rising demand is underpinned by major upstream projects such as Shah Deniz, Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli, and Absheron. These developments have bolstered production capacity and proven the country’s long-term commitment to stable supply. The nation’s proven reserves of 2.6 trillion cubic meters and projected reserves of approximately 3 trillion cubic meters position it well to remain a leading supplier in the decades to come.

At the Baku Energy Forum, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized this dynamic, noting that Azerbaijan's export volumes reached 25 bcm last year and could rise by another 8 bcm by 2030 based on ongoing developments and new contracts. He framed Azerbaijan’s success in terms of balanced cooperation between producer, transit, and consumer countries—describing it as a “win-win” model for future energy partnerships.

“When energy resources are properly managed, and cooperation between investors, the host country, and transit countries works as it does here, you achieve success,” said President Aliyev.

Central to Azerbaijan’s export strategy is the Southern Gas Corridor, a 3,500-kilometer system that delivers Caspian gas to Europe. Its backbone, the TAP pipeline, currently has a capacity of 12 bcm annually, but expansion plans are already underway. By 2027, Azerbaijan aims to increase gas exports to 20 bcm per year, a move that would significantly reduce Europe’s dependency on a limited number of gas suppliers.

This expansion aligns with the EU’s broader strategic goals to enhance energy security, reduce supply vulnerabilities, and counteract geopolitical risks. The diversification of supply sources, especially from politically stable and economically motivated partners like Azerbaijan, is seen as a cornerstone of Europe's energy transition in the medium term.

As the geopolitical and economic map of global energy continues to shift, Azerbaijan has carved out a reputation as a reliable, forward-thinking supplier. Its ability to deliver increasing volumes of gas, develop new fields, and expand export infrastructure underscores the country’s strategic importance to European energy security.

While challenges remain - not least in terms of infrastructure investment and coordination with transit countries - Baku’s long-term vision and proven execution capabilities have made it an indispensable energy partner. If current plans hold, Azerbaijan could soon be exporting nearly twice as much gas to Europe as it does today, solidifying its role as a central pillar of the continent’s diversified energy future.