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Akbar Novruz

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Azerbaijan-US relations have experienced various transformations over the past decades, navigating between cooperation and contention. Yet, with the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2025, a new and potentially strategic chapter in bilateral ties seems to be unfolding. The mutual respect and dialogue between President Ilham Aliyev and President Trump are laying the groundwork for a renewed partnership based on shared interests, ranging from energy security and regional stability to counterterrorism and economic cooperation.

This warming of relations is already being felt in economic indicators. In 2024, Azerbaijan’s non-oil and gas exports reached $3.4 billion, a modest increase from the previous year. However, what stands out is the emergence of the United States as one of Azerbaijan’s top five trade partners for the first time, highlighting a shift in trade orientation and a deepening economic connection.

Talking to Azernews, Member of Parliament Vugar Bayramov emphasized the strategic opportunity this presents, stating:

“New opportunities have emerged for relations between Azerbaijan and the United States to enter a strategic phase. After Donald Trump was re-elected as US President in 2025, these prospects have become even stronger. There are now ample opportunities to bring relations that weakened and in some cases became tense during the previous administration of Washington to a strategic level.”

Bayramov underscored the impressive trade momentum, noting:

“Starting last year, further deepening of economic and trade relations between the two countries has been observed. Trade turnover between Azerbaijan and the United States increased more than three times last year compared to 2022. Our trade turnover, which was $570 million in 2022, was $904 million in 2023, and $1 billion 752 million last year. The developing dynamics of cooperation between the states will create wider opportunities in the field of trade and mutual investment.”

Beyond economics, recent symbolic gestures have also played a diplomatic role. During the III Shusha Global Media Forum held in Khankendi, a clip of President Trump’s remarks was shared—a gesture that was acknowledged with appreciation by President Ilham Aliyev. Bayramov interpreted this as a notable moment:

“The recent sharing of the speech of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, at the meeting of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, with the participants of the III Shusha Global Media Forum in Khankendi, and the gratitude of our head of state for this, makes a special contribution to the development of relations between the two countries. This, in addition to being characterized as a global focus on the issues raised by the president at the forum organized in Khankendi, also meant the beginning of a new stage in bilateral relations.”

Looking ahead, all eyes are on a potential visit by President Ilham Aliyev to the United States. According to Bayramov:

“In the context of all this, the visit of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, to the United States will open a new page not only in US–Azerbaijan relations, but also in American–South Caucasus relations as a whole.”

If these developments are any indication, Azerbaijan and the United States may well be on the cusp of a reinvigorated strategic alliance—one that carries broader implications for regional diplomacy and transatlantic cooperation.