Given Azerbaijan's economic weight, it's unthinkable for EU to act on wishes of France for a weak state like Armenia, economist
Qabil Ashirov
Read moreDespite losing all hope after a humiliating defeat in the 44-day war, Armenian public figures and society try to grasp at straws making a number of political manoeuvres. Even prior to the war, Armenians used to threaten Azerbaijan to strike the pipelines transferring Azerbaijani oil and gas to Europe. However, it proved to be a big morsel to bite for them after a heavy defeat on the battlefield. So, they changed their tactics by starting to lobby different countries to put economic sanctions on Azerbaijan. During the war and after it, Armenians or people close to the Armenian diaspora in mass media started to voice some economic sanctions against Azerbaijan. Such kind of heinous action was done last week by the journalist of Armenpress during an interview with the French Foreign Minister. The journalist asked if France considering economic sanctions on Azerbaijan. The French top diplomat explained to the journalist in the diplomatic language that it is out of the question.
Speaking to Azernews, economist and political analyst Natig Jafarli said that the idea of applying sanctions against Azerbaijan by the EU or its members is illogical and impossible. At a time when Azerbaijan is the most important energy carrier, it would be unthinkable for the European Union to act according to the wishes of France for a weak state like Armenia. The expert emphasizes that Azerbaijan is currently at the forefront of large-scale projects in the field of renewable energy, along with projects such as TANAP and TAP. Eastern Europe today sees Azerbaijan as a door of hope in terms of energy supply.
“Azerbaijan is experiencing the highest period of cooperation with the EU, and although France is one of the most important countries of the EU, it is not a country that can make decisions alone. Decisions in the EU are made by consensus. Even if France has such an idea, it has no chance to pass this decision through the EU. Because many countries including Germany, Italy, Hungary, and other countries will veto this decision due to known facts. This is why, it is impossible for France to act against Azerbaijan on its own or with the support of the EU,” Jafarli pointed.
Besides that, Natig Jafarli thinks that France is not interested in any sanctions against Azerbaijan even if Armenia urges it. According to him, it is only the opinion of people in some political circles in France, and these opinions do not have the power to influence the decisions of the French state.
“Frankly, France does not even try. Some French diplomats, journalists, and media groups make statements in favor of Armenia and they have an unfavorable position against Azerbaijan, but these are considered within the framework of general freedom of speech. So, I do not expect the political consequences due to these persons. I consider it impossible,” the economist opined.
Further, Natig Jafarli drew attention to the growing trade turnover between Azerbaijan and France. In addition, he mentioned the purchase of 12 Airbus and Totals activity in Azerbaijan. Taking into account mentioned, he concluded that Armenian lobbying sanctions will be futile.
“The trade turnover between Azerbaijan and France is increasing, and there is serious warming in their relations. Azerbaijan's purchase of 12 Airbus units from France, Total participation in several large projects, including the Absheron field, indicate the logic and power of relations between Azerbaijan and France. But France also has political ambitions. It aims to have a share and an influence in the South Caucasus through Armenia.
Given that the process of pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus is going on. At the moment it is not very strong, but after some time it will be felt more seriously. We can consider France’s attempts to fill the place vacated by Russia. If we leave these political steps aside, from a purely pragmatic economic point of view, France-Azerbaijan relations stand on a more logical and mutually beneficial cooperation,” the expert added.
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