An interview with Arzu Naghiyev, deputy director general of Trend news agency, political analyst, has been published by the Global Institute for Democracy and Strategic Studies (GIDSS).
The conflict that once began with anti-government protests, later turned into a full-scale civil war.
11 million people are displaced and are running from the battles of the forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, the opposition and the Islamic State (IS) jihadists.
According to UN statistics, the death toll in the conflict of June 2013 reached more than 90 thousand. Another report from activists and the UN said that more than 250 thousand people were killed by August 2015.
Since the beginning of the conflict, 4.5 million people have fled Syria; the majority of them are women and children. Neighboring Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey cope with history's greatest human influx.
The UN Security Council called for the implementation of the 2012 Geneva Declaration. The declaration "by mutual agreement" is to establish a transitional government.
The talks, known as the Geneva-2, broke down in early 2014. UN special envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, accused the Syrian government of rejecting the demands of the opposition.
The USA and Russia are the main “participants” to the conflict. The negotiations still continue between the sides, which are supporting different points of view.
Deputy Director-General of the Trend Agency and an expert on regional geopolitics, Arzu Nagiyev, shared his opinion with us.
The preparation of the new Constitution may be considered the turning point for the conflict settlement. Could this "new" Constitution save Syria?
I think that the first step is not for the creation of a new constitution. Of course, it is possible to return to the issue of the constitution after the establishment of a ceasefire.
The sides must find mutual interests for the resolution of the conflict. Then they have to deal with the problem of refugees, the number of which is rapidly growing.
For the time being, there is no power or government in the territory of Syria which is able to control and maintain stability in the country.
So, the most important step must be the maintenance of stability, otherwise no constitution will heal Syria’s wounds. Undoubtedly, Bashar al-Assad wants to preserve the government and think about the constitution which meets his interests.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, and his US counterpart, showed willingness to start a new phase of negotiations. What is the situation now?
Despite the fact that Russia is trying to keep the peace talks on Surya, there are other main players, such as the USA, Turkey and Iran. The position of each country to the conflict must be taken into account.
Unfortunately, this process is in deadlock. In this case, there is no need to hold another round of negotiations, because there will not be any solution. The attitude of each side must be questioned, pondered and taken into account.
What is the position of Donald Trump’s administration regarding the conflict?
I do not believe that the foreign policy of the United States is going to significantly change during Trump’s presidency, particularly in the Syrian conflict.
In his pre-election statements, Mr. Trump emphasized that he will fight terrorism, including the territory of Syria. This process is already taking place and it was clearly shown during the last summit in Riyadh and, of course, in the attitude towards Iran. That is why it is not expected to see any changes of the US’ policy towards Syria.
Several Arab countries broke off relations with Qatar. Could this have an impact on the region or the issue of Syria?
Of course, the effect will be felt not only in Syria but also in the whole Arab world.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Bahrain, Yemen and Libya's decision will unambiguously extend the resolution of the Syrian conflict.
This process is not happening for the first time. Such things happened a couple of years ago.
I think the main problem is in the "Muslim Brotherhood" organization, which is considered to be the opposition. Qatar's supportfor this organization is not accepted by all of these Arab states.
What is the role of Turkey and Iran? What is the position of the USA towards Russia's rapprochement with Turkey?
Turkey is a member of NATO and is a strategic partner of the US. Of course, there was coldness in relations between Turkey and the USA because of the issue of FETO.
But it is important to stress the fact that Turkey’s position towards Kurds is completely different; and it does not match with the position of Russia and the USA.
Of course, the USA cannot be glad for the rapproachment of Turkey and Russia, and there are a number of reasons for that. The main problem is that the opinions of the states are totally opposite to one another.
The only purpose of the Turkish government is to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state near its borders; but Russia wants this to happen. At the same time, there are a number of opposition governments in Syria that are supported by these states. The USA does not want the rapproachement of Turkey and Russia because in this case Russia will dominate and influence the region, which is unacceptable for the USA.
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