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Fatime Letifova

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The provocations carried out by the Armenian side on the border with Azerbaijan, the baseless claims made by the French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Stéphane Sejourne against Azerbaijan in Paris, as well as the biased policy implemented by the West regarding the Garabagh issue already predict the decisions that the parties will make at the Brussels meeting on April 5.

In particular, the fact that Azerbaijan was not invited to this meeting and the statements of the Armenian officials relying on France's support form an opinion that the results of the tripartite meeting will not be peaceful at all.

For this reason, Azerbaijan insists that the April 5 meeting be postponed. But the West insists on advancing its own agenda in this matter.

The scenario envisages the complete transfer of Armenia to the disposal of the West. For 30 years, Armenia has been Russia's springboard in the region, and now it makes a shift in its mission inclining towards the West, led by France.

All these processes are taking place in Iran's view and silence. Iran does not seem to see the US and EU military base being established on its borders.

The geopolitical games taking place in the South Caucasus region seem to be part of the scenario of World War III and the redistribution of the world. The previous status quo satisfied everyone except Azerbaijan and Turkiye. This was a scenario calculated for the occupation of Azerbaijani lands and the creation of a second Armenian state in the South Caucasus.

Despite all efforts, President Ilham Aliyev broke the rules of this game. He created a new reality and status quo in the region. It goes without saying that the fans of the West and Armenia do not want to put up with this.

Like the Ukrainian front, efforts are being made to create a second front and new dividing lines in the South Caucasus.

Of course, Georgia should clarify its position here. The Georgian authorities follow a pro-Western line. In fact, Georgia should be together with Azerbaijan in the region.

Russia will never come to terms with the processes taking place in Armenia. Also, time is running out for him.

Russia, which has been in a waiting position in Ukraine for a long time, eventually lost Ukraine and had to fall into the current situation.

And finally, all these events once again provide an opportunity to deeply analyze the preliminary results of the upcoming Brussels meeting.

Turkish expert Güngör Yavuzaslan said in his comment to Azernews that the Brussels meeting planned for April 5 prioritizes the personal interests of the West more than Armenia. According to him, this meeting also expresses the West's promise to support Armenia in establishing a new status quo.

"The meeting to be held in Brussels, especially under the leadership of France, is a manifestation of the support given to Armenia by the West. While the Ukrainian war continues, we see Europe trying to implement a new policy through France in the South Caucasus. Pashinyan does not stand by the agreement he signed after the 44-day war, but tries to cooperate with France to create a new status quo in the Caucasus," he said.

The expert pointed that regional states will not be indifferent to this. The rapprochement of Armenia with the West will contribute to the cooperation between Moscow and Ankara.

"This situation will accelerate the rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow. Also, Russia, which continues the war in Ukraine, will not accept the intervention of NATO and France in the South Caucasus, which it sees as its backyard. Official Moscow can take strict steps in this regard. "Freezing Armenia's participation in the CSTO and withdrawing from the organization may cause Azerbaijan to take military steps to open the Zangazur Corridor."

The political analyst noted that certain forces are trying to create a new source of conflict through the Caucasus. The expert reminded that no provocative step taken against Azerbaijan and Turkey will go unanswered.
"There is an attempt to create a new conflict and tension in the international world. This happens through the Caucasus. However, we must not forget that if pressure is carried out against Azerbaijan today, the Turkish Armed Forces will take security measures together with the Azerbaijani Armed Forces."

Güngör emphasized that the main reason for the West's interest in the South Caucasus is the war in Ukraine. He said that the USA and the EU are using Armenia to suppress Russia in the region.

"Recently, there is a growing crisis in Europe under the huge slogan "We can send troops to Ukraine". We must not forget that if Western troops enter Ukraine, the war will spread to the whole of Europe. For this reason, the United States, together with France, wants to push NATO into the South Caucasus. This is a plan to be implemented by Armenia. However, among the powers that will stop this project are Ankara and Baku," the expert added.

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