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Elnur Enveroglu

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The Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan relationship has spent years accumulating political capital, and now the two countries are being challenged to turn that capital into economic power.

Perhaps that is the real test facing President Ilham Aliyev’s 23–24 August state visit to Uzbekistan. Analysed politically and economically, the relationship is already unusually strong, as indeed, Baku and Tashkent describe one another as brotherly allies, supported by deep historical and cultural links. Presidents of both countries maintain frequent contact, while a growing network of bilateral agreements has transformed political goodwill into formal strategic commitments.

But the most interesting development is happening beneath the diplomatic headlines. As mentioned above, the economic relationship is moving faster than politics, with trade obviously rising sharply. For example, investment structures are being created, companies are expanding across borders, transport flows are increasing, manufacturing partnerships are producing vehicles, and Uzbek businesses are participating in Azerbaijan’s reconstruction programme. In other words, the relationship is beginning to acquire an economic life of its own.

Certainly, that matters because the strategic value of the partnership will ultimately depend on whether it can move beyond state-to-state diplomacy. Moreover, in all these successes, not only words speak but numbers, which suggest tremendous momentum.

Let's take a look at how bilateral trade climbed to $795 million in 2025, more than tripling from the previous year. During the first five months of 2026, trade was another 33 per cent higher year on year.

Besides, more than 130 Uzbek companies are operating in Azerbaijan, and the Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan Investment Company, established in 2023, provides another institutional channel for financing projects.

We can admit that numbers speak volumes, but perhaps the next question is whether this momentum can be scaled. When deeply analysing, we can see that manufacturing offers an obvious opportunity.

For instance, cooperation through Azermash with Uzbek partners has already produced more than 10,000 Chevrolet vehicles and over 300 Isuzu vehicles, through which it demonstrates that bilateral economic relations are capable of moving beyond the traditional exchange of commodities. And the same logic applies to agriculture.

Uzbekistan’s involvement in the 100-hectare “Friendship Garden” project in Fuzuli illustrates how economic cooperation is being connected to Azerbaijan’s reconstruction agenda. The project is intended to cultivate both Uzbek and Azerbaijani pomegranate varieties, creating a tangible symbol of economic and agricultural cooperation.

Moreover, the Mirza Ulugbek school in Fuzuli represents another dimension. Generally, Uzbekistan’s role in rebuilding and developing liberated territories gives the bilateral relationship a long-term physical presence inside Azerbaijan. It also creates opportunities for Uzbek companies and institutions to participate in reconstruction, agriculture, education and infrastructure.

Looking through all this progress, one can say that Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are not simply trading with one another. Both countries are increasingly building projects together.

There is a lot more to say about the progress underway. Another example is that transport could become the next major growth engine. The 1.4 million tonnes of transit recorded between the two countries in 2025 underline the potential. Azerbaijan’s position on the Caspian and Uzbekistan’s position deep inside Central Asia create a natural economic logic for stronger east-west connections. Besides that, it should be highlighted that the Middle Corridor is central to that calculation.

As companies and governments seek alternatives to traditional Eurasian routes, the ability to move goods from Central Asia across the Caspian and through Azerbaijan towards Türkiye and Europe becomes increasingly valuable. Therefore, for Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan provides a western gateway, and for Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan provides access to one of Central Asia’s largest and most dynamic markets, which, in reality, creates a strategic relationship based on geography as much as politics.

However, it is not limited to what is mentioned above, as there is another advantage: the partnership does not depend on a single sector.

As is known, energy cooperation between Baku and Tashkent has existed for years, and, on the other hand, transport is expanding, manufacturing is developing, agriculture is entering the equation, investment institutions are being strengthened, tourism and aviation links are growing, and cultural and educational exchanges are deepening. Even the human infrastructure of the relationship is expanding, as observed in regular flights connecting Baku with Tashkent and Samarkand. Students study in both countries. Cities are establishing sister-city relationships. Media and civil-society forums have created additional channels of contact.

This matters more than it is expressed through words, because sustainable economic integration rarely comes from government agreements alone, and it actually requires business networks, institutional contacts and people-to-people links. And looking at all this progress, this grounds all thoughts that the two countries are gradually building all three.

Furthermore, the Azerbaijan-Uzbek political architecture is also becoming more sophisticated. The Supreme Interstate Council provides a mechanism for strategic coordination, while the Intergovernmental Commission has already held 15 meetings, most recently in July 2026.

Moreover, the Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan Regional Forum adds another layer, bringing local governments and businesses into the relationship. This is particularly important because the next phase of bilateral growth may increasingly come from regional rather than central-government initiatives.

A city in Azerbaijan partnering with a region in Uzbekistan can generate commercial opportunities that may never emerge from a presidential summit alone.

That is why the fourth Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan Interregional Forum, scheduled in Tashkent ahead of the presidential visit, deserves attention. It represents the less glamorous but potentially more consequential side of diplomacy, which focuses on connecting businesses, municipalities and investors.

If Baku and Tashkent can align their transport infrastructure, investment priorities and industrial strategies, the relationship could become a significant economic corridor in its own right, although challenges exist.

Trade remains far below its potential given the size of the two economies. Connectivity across the Caspian still involves logistical constraints. Economic diversification requires sustained private-sector investment rather than government-backed projects alone. The political relationship may therefore be ahead of the commercial one.

That is not necessarily a weakness, but it can be an advantage if governments use their political trust to remove barriers for businesses and create predictable conditions for investment. And it is no coincidence that the August summit offers precisely that opportunity.

Thus President Ilham Aliyev and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev do not need to prove that Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are allies. They need to demonstrate what that alliance can produce, where the next chapter of the relationship will be measured less by the number of declarations signed and more by the number of factories built, goods transported, investments made and businesses created.

The Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan partnership began with history and culture, and it is now being tested by economics. And if the two sides succeed in matching their political ambition with commercial scale, their alliance could become one of the defining partnerships linking the South Caucasus and Central Asia.