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AzerNEWS Staff

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Historical market data suggest that the S&P 500 could extend its gains toward the end of the year as the United States approaches its midterm elections.

The S&P 500 has risen in 21 of the past 23 midterm election cycles during the period beginning one month before the election and ending two months afterward. The benchmark index has recorded a median return of 7% over the three-month period surrounding the elections.

Most of these rallies followed a relatively stable market period from mid-July to early October, a pattern broadly resembling market movements in 2026.

Investors questioning whether the historical trend will repeat this year could point to 1978 as an example of a different outcome. That year, stocks declined around the midpoint of the election campaign amid rising inflation and interest rates.

Another exception came in 2018, during Donald Trump's first presidency. A market sell-off was driven by concerns over interest rates and the trade war between the United States and China.

US stocks began recovering in January 2019 after the Federal Reserve adopted a more accommodative stance.

Although historical patterns provide context for investors, past market performance does not guarantee that the S&P 500 will follow the same trajectory during the 2026 midterm election cycle.