Nuclear deal - Who will benefit?
By Sara Rajabova
Iran’s religious leader has expressed support for the extended nuclear talks despite the failure to achieve a final nuclear deal on Tehran’s disputed nuclear program.
Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei made it clear that he will not stand in the way of continued nuclear negotiations with world powers, but at the same time will stand up to excessive demands. “For the same reasons I wasn't against negotiations, I'm also not against the extension," he said.
Besides, the Iranian parliament backed the Iran’s negotiation team’s decision. Member of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Abbas Ali Mansouri said “if the negotiating team decided to extend the talks, then it was necessary.”
Iranian top officials’ positive remark after the talks gave the ground to say that Iran, which was crippled by the international sanctions imposed on the country over its nuclear program, is determined to come to an agreement with the West.
Certainly, Iran would benefit with a nuclear deal with world powers, which means it would be exempt from the sanctions that is a serious challenge for the Iranian government and hindrance for the economic development of the country.
Tense relations with Western countries sidelined Tehran from energy projects for a long time. Because of the sanctions and U.S. objections Iran stayed aside from energy projects on taking energy resources from East to West, mainly to Europe. With huge energy recourses Iran could play an important role in meeting the increasing demands of Europe and at the same time, to revive the sanctions-hit economy.
Besides, the nuclear deal and normalization of relations with the West could be beneficial for Tehran from a political point of view. Iran, which has influence on some countries in the Middle East, could contribute to solving problems in the region. For example, its contribution to fight against ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) could be beneficial.
Also, with its influence on the Syrian government, Tehran could help find a settlement to the Syrian conflict, which destroyed the country following the civil war in the country.
Despite the talks have been holding between Iran and P5+1, but as some expert say the negotiations are the mainly between Iran and the United States. Thus, all the important issues in the talks are needed to be agreed between Tehran and Washington.
However, the European countries, which also engaged in the talks, are more interested in a deal with Iran. This energy rich country could be an alternative energy source in meeting the demands of Europe and lessen its energy dependence on Russian.
Also, the West is not interested in new and even more devastating conflict in the Middle East, which has no break from the conflicts and wars. Besides, the Ukrainian conflict in the east gate of Europe and tense relations with Russia pushes for rapid solution of the nuclear dispute.
Commenting on the extension of the talks, Kamran Dadkhah, a professor of economics at Northeastern University in Boston city of Massachusetts State, told AzerNews that the negotiations have been extended and the West has shown good will by extending temporarily relief from some of the sanctions.
“The main point is that the alternatives to negotiations and curbing Iran’s ambitions are either accepting a nuclear Iran which will follow with a race by other countries in the region to acquire the weapon and the danger of nuclear weapons falling in the hands of terrorists,or war with devastating consequences for the whole region.”
However, there are some issues that damages and extends the agreement on the nuclear talks. One of the reasons is the deep confrontation between the negotiating sides, mainly between Tehran and Washington. It is not unexpected as the two countries haven’t any relations over 30 years and addressed to each other as foes. In this situation sitting around the same table is in itself a great achievement.
Both negotiating teams are under pressure by hardliners. The Republicans in the U.S. Congress, which will take the majority from next year, threaten to impose additional sanctions on Iran.
“Thus, diplomatic efforts will continue but at least in the next few months the relationship between Iran and the West would not materially change, especially that soon Republicans will have majority in the Congress and they are more suspicious of Iran’s intentions,” Dadkhah said.
Meanwhile, Tehran repeatedly said it will not bow to the excessive demands of the West. Tehran denied the claims on developing the nuclear weapons and said it needs nuclear program only for peaceful purposes.
However, some experts still skeptic on Iran’s intentions on developing peaceful nuclear program.
“The question is, however, is Iran after manufacturing atomic weapons. If it is not, then why the country spent over a hundred billion dollars on this project? Fuel to produce energy in nuclear power plants could have been obtained for a fraction of this amount. Further because of sanctions Iran has paid a heavy price for its nuclear program. If it is not trying to build bombs, why did it not come to terms with the West sooner? Thus, the ball is Iran’s court to decide what kind of relationship it wants,” Dadkhah said.
On the other hand, there are some external powers that are cautious of the deal between Iran and the West. Israel, Saudi Arabia and some other countries don’t want nuclear Iran in their region. Taking into account the above-mentioned factors, expecting the nuclear deal within a year would be a miracle.
However, the positive statements of the negotiating sides after the talks that wrapped up in Vienna on November 24, gave the grounds for hope on reaching the final nuclear deal, which could bring new hope to the Middle East.