Russia yields its positions in Central Asia?
By Laman Sadigova
As things currently stand the European Union may get even closer to Central Asia than previously anticipated as Tajikistan has widely opened its arms to the EU initiative, hoping to draw economic strength and support from such an alliance.
With a low GDP, struggling economy and poor natural resources the post Soviet country needs more help than ever before, especially in the light of the current regional economic slowdown - Russia's economic downfall affected all countries in the region which economic growth has been tied up to its own.
EU Deputy Secretary General for External Action Service, Helga Maria Schmidt discussed with President Emomali Rahmon developments in between the EU and Tajikistan. Schmidt praised "Tajikistan's role in ensuring peace and stability in the Central Asian region as well as its role in promoting the revival of peace in Afghanistan."
She stressed EU's willingness to contribute to Tajikistan and other countries in the region, to promote peace and stability by supporting economic development and welfare in the country.
The move may indeed increase the EU role in the region and even change developments in regards to Moscow. Russia, another big player in this part of the world has suffered an economic slowdown as a result of EU and U.S.-imposed sanctions.
With its good geographic location Tajikistan may provide an alternative access to Pakistan's approach to Afghanistan. That might weaken Russia's decades-long influence in the country and thus offer an opportunity to other interested forces in the region.
But is Tajikistan ready to accept western powers' help and risk losing its Russian ally?
And though such move might indeed strengthen Tajikistan politically and give it greater maturity, it could also upset Russia.
The Russian influence in Tajikistan has deep roots in the country’ history. Ties between the two countries extend too many shields including economical, political, and ideological.
Moreover, Tajikistan very much depends on its migrant remittances from Russia, home to millions of migrants in search of a better life.
The presence of great many migrant workers in Russia from countries like Tajikistan has given Moscow an added bargaining chip. Russia constitutes roughly half the country’s GDP. Moreover, Russia has been quite generous towards migrants from this post Soviet nation. For instance, Tajik citizens have been able to stay in Russia for 15 days without registration and they have been able to obtain work permits for up to three years.
In this context, Russia needs to be seen as a power deeply interested in preserving its influence in the immediate region.
Along with a significant political and military presence in the country Moscow holds the necessary levers of economic influence on Dushanbe, which at any moment can turn into an instrument of political pressure.
Despite a neutral status, the permanently re-located 201st Division and the Division of Border Troops in Tajikistan makes Russia's presence in the country very noticeable. Furthermore Tajikistan is connected with Russia by a number of international agreements, the most important of which is the Collective Security Treaty of the CIS countries.
A difficult period in Russia’s economy resulted in a new migrant policy that caused a crack in Tajikistan-Russia relations. Tightening migration policies in Russia seriously affected the situation in Tajikistan.
Some Russian political analysts argue that Moscow did not meet its aspirations in Central Asia. This is hardly true. Russia knows where its interests lie in the region, but it lacks the necessary resources to implement them.
Sanctions imposed by the EU meant that Russia has had to grapple with many problems, among them the ruble’s devaluation, a development which shattered its national economy.
Perhaps, the EU's intensified attempts are to be seen as an effort to regain its declining clout and to use it as leverage in shaping a new regional strategy. In this regard, Tajikistan, which still has a rather limited experience of cooperation with the U.S., has the ability to expand these contacts to the detriment of Russia. In that case U.S. influence in Tajikistan may gradually increase in the next few years.
It remains to be seen how Russia will react to such developments.
Analyst say that’s Russia is unlikely to give up without a “fight”. Thus, in the next 10 years, Tajikistan will have to balance between two main centers of power in Central Asia, that is, between the traditional Russian presence and growing American influence. Much will depend on the policy to be pursued by the incumbent authorities.
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