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On June 20, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will pay a working visit to Türkiye, where he is expected to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This long-anticipated visit, framed by Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan as potentially "historic," is seen as an important step toward reviving diplomatic relations that have remained frozen for decades.

At the centre of the visit's agenda are the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, the establishment of diplomatic ties, the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, and broader regional security issues. Pashinyan has repeatedly framed normalisation with Türkiye not only as vital for regional peace, but also as a critical part of Armenia’s integration path with the West. However, Türkiye’s deep strategic alliance with Azerbaijan and Armenia’s growing distance from Russia introduce unique dynamics that could either advance or complicate the outcome of the meeting.

So, could this visit truly be a “historic” turning point, or is it merely a symbolic step? What is meant by labelling this as a significant historical turning point? What are the implications of the potential opening of the land border between Türkiye and Armenia for the regional economy and transport? Furthermore, in light of this meeting, is there a possibility of progress towards a peace agreement between the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides?

Azernews reached out to experts for answers.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, political analyst and head of the Atlas Research Centre, said Turkiye's position will be unshakable as peace between Yerevan and Baku on the agenda is unchanged.

"After the Second Garabagh War, Türkiye expanded relations with Armenia, which was certainly not surprising. Azerbaijan is not against it. However, Türkiye's position is firm: if Armenia wants to restore diplomatic relations with it (Türkiye) and open its borders, it must first fulfil its promise of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. The resolution of almost all issues between the two countries rests on this. From that point of view, no changes have been observed in the position of official Ankara so far.

Here, the discussions will likely focus on the signing of the peace agreement. Armenia will be informed about the significance of constitutional changes related to this process, as well as the potential benefits that the opening of the Zangezur corridor could bring. Therefore, I believe that these will be the main topics of discussion at the meeting that will take place."

Prof. Dr. İrfan Kaya Ülger, political science faculty member at Kocaeli University, in a comment for Azernews, said that Pashinyan’s visit is a symbolically important event that could signal the beginning of a new chapter in Turkish-Armenian relations. It suggests that renewed diplomacy may now be possible after decades of estrangement, according to him.

"Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Türkiye could open the door to a new era in Turkish-Armenian relations. After the collapse of the USSR, Türkiye established diplomatic relations with Armenia within the framework of its policy of recognising former Soviet Republics without any discrimination. However, the Garabagh conflict broke out later. Twenty per cent of Azerbaijani territory was occupied. Thereupon, Türkiye suspended diplomatic relations with Armenia and closed its border gates. The embargo Türkiye imposed on Armenia due to the actual occupation of Azerbaijani territory did not change despite intense and strong pressures before and after the negotiation process with the EU."

He emphasised that following the 2020 Second Garabagh War, Türkiye and Armenia have entered into dialogue:

"Since the Second Garabagh War, which started on September 27, 2020 and lasted 44 days, and the subsequent liberation of the center of Garabagh from separatists, Türkiye and Armenia have held comprehensive negotiations to establish sound relations. Negotiations continue between the parties to maximize the level of diplomatic representation and open border gates. Türkiye informs Azerbaijan about the talks it has been holding with Armenia and avoids taking positions that are contrary to Baku's will."

Highlighting the shift in Armenian domestic rhetoric, Prof. Ülger added:

"Essentially, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan aims to further advance bilateral relations. In this context, the arguments he put forward were found noteworthy by Türkiye. Pashinyan made assessments that the grand Armenian project, which claims rights in the Eastern Anatolia region, is disconnected from reality. On the other hand, he opposed the Garabagh Clique, namely the Sargsyan and Kocharyan line, which pursues the dream of a greater Armenia in his own country, and defended the view that utopian projects would not be in Armenia’s interest."

"As a result, we come to the following: Pashinyan’s visit to Türkiye has the potential to open the door to a brand new era between Yerevan and Ankara. In the near future, Türkiye can be expected to revitalise its political and commercial relations with Armenia in parallel with the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations."

Commenting on the potential impact of opening the Türkiye-Armenia land border and its connection to wider regional transport dynamics, including the Zangezur Corridor, Prof. Ülger explained:

"There are two customs gates on the 325 km long border between Türkiye and Armenia. One of these is the Alican and the other is the Akyaka gate. If the agreement foreseeing the opening of the border gates is signed between the parties, this will mean that Armenia will open up to the outside world through Türkiye."

"On the other hand, progress is also expected on the Zangazur crossing, one of the corridors agreed upon under Putin's coordination on November 10, 2020. Türkiye has essentially taken very important steps for the infrastructure of this project, which will connect Türkiye to Azerbaijan and Central Asia via Nakhchivan. It is anticipated that the work in this context will be completed within a year. During Pashinyan's visit to Türkiye, the parties may demonstrate a common will to accelerate the work."

As for whether the visit might advance the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, Prof. Ülger stated:

"A draft agreement has emerged in the peace agreement negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Negotiations between the parties on the content of the agreement have also been completed. The main obligations that need to be fulfilled within this scope are to amend the constitution and fundamental laws of Armenia in order to remove expressions that contradict Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and sovereignty."

"Other issues awaiting resolution between the two parties include the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and the right to return and compensation for Azerbaijani migrants who left Armenia. Pashinyan’s visit to Türkiye is also expected to see progress on the draft peace agreement. Erdoğan is expected to contribute to shortening the path to a final peace agreement as a mediator and facilitator."