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Akbar Novruz

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The 7 August strike on the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan’s (SOCAR) storage facility in Ukraine’s Odessa region is more than an isolated act of wartime vandalism. It represents a calculated escalation by Moscow, striking not merely at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure but at a foreign commercial asset with geopolitical resonance. Carried out with Iranian-supplied Shahed drones, the attack underscores the deepening strategic convergence between Russia and Iran, a partnership increasingly weaponised to disrupt regional energy flows.

Moreover, the damage—severe enough to ignite a large-scale fire and rupture a diesel pipeline—injured four Azerbaijani employees and momentarily disrupted SOCAR’s operations. Yet beyond the immediate human and material toll lies a more complex message: that Russia is willing to target Azerbaijani-linked assets abroad when it suits its wider objectives, even at the risk of provoking diplomatic friction with Baku. The incident, swiftly contained by Ukrainian emergency services, raises pressing questions about the security of foreign energy investments in active conflict zones and the vulnerability of critical supply chains to hybrid warfare tactics.

Furthermore, this attack is far from an isolated event. It occurred just hours after a historic trilateral summit at the White House, where Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace treaty brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, marking a pivotal moment in the South Caucasus peace process. Moscow’s strike on an internationally significant Azerbaijani energy asset abroad sends a clear message of military provocation and signals growing hostility toward Azerbaijan’s expanding geopolitical and economic role in the region.

The damage goes beyond physical destruction. The Orlovka gas compressor station in Odessa—critical for transporting Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine through reverse flows—was also targeted on August 5, underscoring Russia’s broader strategy to disrupt regional energy cooperation and isolate its neighbours economically and politically. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, a major artery of regional energy supply, faces an increasingly precarious future amid these tensions.

Historically, relations between Russia and Azerbaijan were relatively warm, but official contacts have frozen over the past four months. Moscow’s view of post-Soviet neighbours as geopolitical pawns rather than equal partners increasingly strains trust, leaving Azerbaijan vulnerable to indirect pressure. The BTC pipeline and other energy infrastructures risk becoming “accidental targets” under the guise of technical failures—disruptions that would carry profound regional and international consequences.

Peter Marko Tase, Founder of the Azerbaijan - United States Business and Education Council, told Azernews that such an attack is clearly not collateral damage; it reflects Russia’s brutal invasion and deliberate targeting of Azerbaijan’s flagship energy company:

“It would be a unique coincidence that such a drone attack or so called accident, against Azerbaijan’s largest oil and gas company in Ukraine would happen only less than ten hours after the trilateral Summit at the Trump White House where over a three decades long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, came to an end thanks to the remarkable leadership of President Ilham Aliyev and the unbridled commitment of President Donald J Trump.

Russia attacked the storage base of Azerbaijani oil, administered by SOCAR, which is the main supply source of fuel products destined for European markets. This brutal action by Moscow illustrates a significant escalation of military attacks joined by Sergey Lavrov’s expanding information and hybrid warfare against the Republic of Azerbaijan and the economic interests of Azerbaijan in Europe. The August 8-9 attack against SOCAR headquarters in Odessa Region is an atrocious act that EU member countries must loudly condemn. Such an abhorrent, evil attack carries two principal messages: Russia’s campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, also Putin’s hegemonic aspirations towards the Southern Caucasus region.

The August 8th visit to the White House by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has made Moscow furious, and the latest Russian attack against SOCAR’s base is an expression of belligerence and a blatant act of military provocation from Russian Forces against the territory of Azerbaijan in Ukraine. Russia must condemn all responsible officers who shot down the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 on 25 December 2024, resulting in the death of 38 passengers and 29 wounded.

The geopolitical interests of Azerbaijan have historically aligned closely with those of Washington. The peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed at the White House last Friday, marks a significant milestone in both American diplomacy and Azerbaijani foreign policy since the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991.

Russia, employing its covert intelligence tactics and engaging in hybrid warfare and cyber operations within the territories of Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and the United States, is likely to lose credibility and valuable opportunities for cooperation in international trade. Furthermore, Moscow will face challenges in capitalizing on regional economic and transportation projects and will lose crucial avenues for promoting its cultural assets and literature. It will take many years for Russia to rebuild trust and establish genuine bilateral dialogue with the Republic of Azerbaijan."