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Akbar Novruz

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A surprise gesture by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has sparked cautious optimism about the future of Azerbaijan–France relations. On May 27, Aliyev pardoned French national Théo Clerc, who had been convicted of hooliganism for spray-painting graffiti on a Baku metro train in March 2024. He had then received a three-year sentence after the court's decision.

The signs of rapprochement, however, came shortly after a reportedly warm meeting between Presidents Aliyev and Emmanuel Macron at the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania. While symbolic, the pardon raises a serious question:

Could this be the beginning of a real diplomatic reset between Baku and Paris? Or is it simply a tactical pause in a longer confrontation?

To better understand the depth of the current dynamic, Azernews spoke with two political analysts — one from Azerbaijan, and the other from the United Kingdom.

Tural Ismayilov, political scientist and Sector Director at the Center for Social Research in Baku, remained skeptical about the long-term prospects of normalization:

“The reason for the tension between Azerbaijan and France has never been Azerbaijan. France has been one of Armenia’s biggest supporters, defending its occupation of Azerbaijani lands for 30 years,” he said, referencing France’s role in the OSCE Minsk Group and its one-sided stance during and after the 44-day Patriotic War.

According to Ismayilov, France has repeatedly violated the principles of international law in its dealings with the South Caucasus, backing Armenia despite its occupation record and turning a blind eye to Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.

He acknowledged that Macron appeared interested in dialogue at the European Political Community summit, but cautioned:

“There are serious problems in diplomatic relations. The level of tension is quite high, and it is very difficult for relations to be resolved in a short time. The latest statements by French Minister Jean-Noël Barrot in Yerevan show that irrational views still dominate parts of France’s political elite.”

Until France significantly changes its approach to the region, Ismayilov doesn’t expect to see “positive and fundamental changes” in bilateral relations.

Neil Watson, a British journalist and political analyst, struck a more optimistic tone — calling the pardon a potential turning point:

“I think we are actually on the cusp of a breakthrough in the very frosty bilateral relationship between Azerbaijan and France,” Watson said.

He explained that the deterioration in ties began around the time of the Second Garabagh War in 2020, when France strongly backed Armenia, motivated by its powerful Franco-Armenian diaspora and geopolitical ambitions in the South Caucasus. France had hoped to position Armenia as a regional outpost, but this strategy appears to be faltering.

Watson emphasized that France now realizes its involvement in postwar negotiations is neither welcomed nor needed:

“The peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have moved to a bilateral format. France is no longer relevant, and Armenia's own recent signals — including possible constitutional amendments — suggest it is preparing to sign a peace agreement without foreign mediation.”

France is also recalibrating its broader regional strategy, Watson argued, acknowledging the growing importance of Azerbaijan in Europe's energy and transport corridors, especially amid the war in Ukraine and calls for greater EU strategic autonomy.

“France wants a homogeneous and stable South Caucasus. And that means accepting Azerbaijan as the region’s leading player. In this context, Macron likely views Aliyev not as an adversary, but as a potential strategic ally — even in the context of a future pan-European security framework,” he said.

He added that President Aliyev has no incentive to remain in a public diplomatic standoff with one of the EU’s leading states:

“Azerbaijan is a tolerant, peace-seeking country, and President Aliyev doesn’t need to prove his strength by keeping France as an enemy. Normalized relations would serve both countries’ long-term interests.”