Azernews.Az

By Aynur Jafarova

Kazakhstan may double the oil production by 2030, expert of the Economics Institute under the Kazakh Education and Science Ministry Oleg Yegorov believes.

"Within 15 years we will be able to double oil production," Yegorov told Baku-based Trend news agency on September 20.

But he stressed the danger of such a sharp increase for the ecology of the Caspian Sea and the whole region.

"The ruthless operation, especially under the bottom of the Caspian Sea, is very dangerous for the environment," Yegorov said.

According to him, another negative side of the oil production in the Caspian Sea is its laboriousness and expensiveness.

"There are great depths and special equipments, not exposed to corrosion, are needed," he said. "Oil and gas, that come from the subsalt sediments are saturated with hydrogen sulfide and sulfurous compounds that corrode pipes made from conventional materials."

Yegorov also believes that Kazakhstan should not seek to sharply increase oil production.

"Today, we sell a large part of the produced oil and do nothing to provide supplies for the processing industry. It is good that now the oil prices fluctuate between $107-$108 per barrel. But there were times when one barrel cost $7. It is possible that the oil extracted from shale in the United States will be sent to the external market and after 5 or 10 years. Iran and Iraq will produce more oil and the prices will drop quickly," he said.

Earlier, Kazakh Oil and Gas Minister Uzakbay Karabalin said that Kazakhstan has the potential to become one of the top ten largest oil-producing countries of the world.

"According to our forecasts, by 2030 the level of oil production in Kazakhstan may exceed 110 million tons, which enables it to enter the top ten largest oil-producing countries in the future," Karabalin underscored.

Kazakhstan's proven oil reserves stood at 30 billion barrels in early 2013, according to BP. OPEC predicts Kazakhstan's oil production to hit 1.69 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2014 while according to EIA, this figure will stand at 1.65 million bpd in 2014.

Kazakhstan's largest hydrocarbon fields are Kashagan, Tengiz and Karachaganak.

Recoverable oil reserves of Kashagan field are estimated at 11 billion barrels, whereas total geological raw material reserves stand at 35 billion barrels. Besides, natural gas reserves are estimated at over 1 trillion cubic meters.

The Tengiz oil field is one of the deepest and largest oil fields in the world. Reserves of the deposit are estimated at 750 million to 1.1 billion tons (6-9 billion barrels) of recoverable oil.

Karachaganak is one of the world's largest fields. Its oil reserves amount to 1.2 billion tons, while those of natural gas are 1.35 trillion cubic meters.

Kazakhstan needs new oil refinery

Yegorov went on to say that Kazakhstan will need to construct a new modern refinery in the nearest future.

"The existing refineries are old, both morally and physically, and there are no any remarkable improvements in the country's refinery sphere," he said.

In addition, due to the fact that the refinery processes oil from different fields with different chemical content every day, the quality of finished product worsens.

"If we construct a refinery for particular oil, for example, for the oil from Kashagan field, it will provide say, 6 million tons for the refinery's burden (the average volume of the refinery's processing) Yegorov said. "This oil will be sent to the refinery every year within 20-25 years and as a result we will get a sustainable production of high-quality products."

According to Yegorov, another main reason for construction of new refinery is the commissioning of the giant Kashagan field in Kazakhstan's section of the Caspian Sea.

"Huge volumes will be transported from Kashagan. The construction of a new refinery should be considered namely in the region which will prepare the oil for processing," he stressed.

The Kazakh oil and gas minister said earlier that the issue of construction of a new refinery is still under discussion.

"We will view the whole complex of enterprises which will emerge within the state program of forced industrial-innovative development, which will include a wide concentration of projects. Logically, it is possible to place the refinery there," Karabalin said.

Three oil refineries are operating in Kazakhstan, which is located in Shymkent (country's southern part), Atyrau (western part) and Pavlodar (northern part).