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Ulviyya Poladova

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Global natural gas demand is expected to fall by approximately 1.5%, or 65 billion cubic meters, in 2026 compared with the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This would mark the third annual decline in global gas consumption since 2020.

The forecast was published in the IEA's Global Gas Security Review 2026.

According to preliminary IEA data, global natural gas consumption fell by more than 1%, or over 35 billion cubic meters, in January-September 2026 compared with the same period last year. The agency said lower consumption in the Middle East, along with high prices in major LNG-importing markets in Asia and Europe, had contributed to the decline in gas demand.

In particular, rising gas prices prompted several Asian countries to switch from gas to coal for electricity generation. Higher prices also reduced gas consumption in energy-intensive industries, including fertilizer production.

In 2026, the decline in global gas demand is expected to be concentrated mainly in the power generation, energy and industrial sectors. Together, these three sectors are projected to account for 90% of the overall decrease.

The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on gas markets varies significantly across regions. In the countries most directly affected by the conflict, damage to domestic gas production and processing facilities has led to a sharp decline in output across energy-intensive industries.

The IEA also forecasts a 1.5% drop in natural gas demand in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026.

"Limited LNG availability and high prices will encourage a shift towards coal in power generation and reduce capacity utilization at energy-intensive industrial facilities," the report said.

In Europe, natural gas consumption is expected to decline by 3% over the year. The agency attributes this to lower industrial gas use amid high prices, as well as reduced gas consumption in the power sector due to increased electricity generation from renewable energy sources.

The impact of the conflict has been limited in regions that are less dependent on LNG imports.