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Qabil Ashirov

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Azerbaijan's victory in the 44-day Patriotic War was the outcome of long-term state-building, economic development, military reforms and strategic leadership, according to American military experts Liam Collins and John Spencer, authors of the book The War for Karabakh: Strategy, Technology, and Victory, presented in Baku on November 3.

The book presentation was jointly organized by the Center for Analysis of International Relations and the Baku Book Center. The publication represents an extensive foreign military study of Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 war, prepared over approximately two years by experts associated with the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Based on interviews with nearly 100 military and civilian experts, as well as field visits to all major battle areas, the research examines the military operations, strategic decisions and broader national capabilities that shaped the outcome of the conflict. Its central argument places Azerbaijan's victory within the wider framework of national power, combining economic capacity, institutional development, military modernization, strategic communications and ideological preparedness.

A major theme of the book is the role of President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ilham Aliyev in strategic wartime management. The authors examine his active communication with Azerbaijani society and international audiences, as well as his efforts to counter disinformation and maintain a consistent flow of information throughout the war. The study presents strategic leadership and effective communication as important components of national resilience and military success.

Collins highlighted the connection between Azerbaijan's economic development and its growing military capabilities. He recalled that Armenia's gross domestic product exceeded Azerbaijan's in 1994, while Azerbaijan subsequently directed revenues from its energy resources towards economic development and strengthening its defence potential. These investments supported military modernization, improved training and the development of an army adapted to contemporary warfare.

The authors also challenge the widespread interpretation of the 2020 conflict as a victory achieved primarily through drones. The book emphasizes Azerbaijan's mastery of modern combat systems, including concealed positions, dispersed forces, the manoeuvrability of small units, suppression of enemy firepower and coordination between different military branches.

Spencer drew particular attention to Azerbaijan's large-scale deception operations. He explained that Azerbaijani forces maintained pressure across several directions while employing alternative operational plans when encountering defensive obstacles. Such manoeuvres influenced the deployment of opposing forces and created favourable conditions for advances along other fronts.

Collins also examined the battles for Hadrut and Shusha, highlighting the importance of ground operations, urban combat preparation and tactical decision-making. His analysis of the Hadrut counterattacks focused on the deployment of Armenian units along exposed mountain roads and their vulnerability to Azerbaijani artillery positions.

The study ultimately places the 44-day war within a broader military and strategic context, demonstrating how economic resources, institutional preparation, human capabilities, technological innovation and coordinated leadership combined to shape Azerbaijan's victory.