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BAKU – Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s snap visit to Russia last week and his meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev in St. Petersburg are directly linked to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, an Azerbaijani analyst has told the Baku-based ANS TV channel.

Natig Miri was commenting on a Russian-brokered meeting between Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan due on March 5, Saturday in Russia's Black Sea city of Sochi.

"Sargsyan’s having been invited to St. Petersburg alone proves that the core of the [Karabakh] problem is linked to Armenia and its President Sargsyan," the analyst said.

The Karabakh conflict emerged in 1988 due to Armenia’s territorial claims. Azerbaijan and Armenia waged a brutal war which claimed some 30,000 lives and displaced about a million Azerbaijanis. About 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory, including Nagorno Karabakh and seven adjacent regions, has been under the occupation of the Armenian armed forces since a ceasefire was signed in 1994. Peace talks, brokered by the United States, Russia and France through the OSCE Minsk Group, have been largely fruitless so far.

Miri said he does not expect considerable progress to be achieved at the Sochi meeting, but some advances could be made.

"If there is any progress, it should be assessed as [a result of] Russia’s pressure on Armenia. And it is because of this very pressure that Russia did not raise the price of natural gas it sells to Armenia [for 2011], and a relevant agreement was reached [between Presidents Sargsyan and Medvedev], though Gazprom’s Chief Executive Alexei Miller earlier announced that the price would be brought into compliance with world market levels."

Miri also pointed out Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigori Karasin’s recent visit to Yerevan, saying "a non-traditional meeting was held that, perhaps, had not taken place before".

"During the visit Karasin held a meeting with the heads of all factions of the Armenian parliament. This meeting was related to the Nagorno Karabakh problem. In other words, they [Moscow] realize too that if any concessions are made on the presidential level, and, naturally, if any legally binding understanding is reached, that agreement would have to be ratified in the Armenian parliament. It appears that the meeting with the faction leaders, in a way, had a purpose of learning the legislative body’s opinion on the matter..."

Miri said it should also be taken into account that ahead of the talks in Sochi, Sargsyan signed an agreement with his all-time allies in the authorities, updating the previous agreement on nominating a single candidate for future presidential elections.

"It appears to me that these are major developments. This means that since Sargsyan is aware of the pressure he will face ahead of the Sochi meeting, he will head to Sochi with a strong hand -- at least in terms of the future of his government," the analyst said.

He also said Sargsyan will "try to stand firm as much as possible" not to make concessions during the upcoming talks.

Miri said further that there is also a positive trend in the peace process.

"It is sensed that world powers, particularly the OSCE Minsk Group’s co-chair countries, now share views to some extent on ways of achieving advances [in the peace process]. True, strong pressure on Armenia is not being seen very much. But world powers understand that the Sochi meeting and the result to be achieved there could play a critical role in whether or not the conflict parties will go to war in the future. This is because they know that very serious preparations are ongoing in Azerbaijan [to launch military action] and that Azerbaijan will not wait for long."

According to Miri, it is for this reason that superpowers are trying to prompt Armenia to make some concessions in Karabakh settlement.

Miri said an agreement could be reached in Sochi to liberate several occupied Azerbaijani regions, but opined that Russia does not want the Karabakh conflict to find its solution overall. Likewise, other world powers do not favor the dispute being settled once and for all, he said.

"Simply, [Armenian troops’] vacating several regions around Nagorno Karabakh is implied here, because today and in the coming decades, Nagorno Karabakh will remain a trump card in their hands, as a leverage of political pressure on Azerbaijan."

The status of the Nagorno Karabakh region has been a stumbling block in peace talks. Baku says the occupied districts must be freed and Azerbaijani refugees returned home, and only after that could the region’s status be determined within Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, while Armenia insists that self-determination is the core principle for a settlement of the dispute. The mediators are seeking a solution leaning simultaneously on both principles.