Stand-off `inevitable` without progress on Garabagh in `09
Armenia and Azerbaijan should confirm the agreement
outlining key principles of the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict
settlement by the end of 2009, otherwise, a fresh stand-off will be
inevitable, an international group working to prevent conflicts
worldwide has warned.
In its latest report on the Garabagh dispute, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said the conducive environment that has emerged in the region inspires optimism for resolving the conflict. It called on the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments and the world community to do everything possible to move the peace process forward, saying the status quo is growing increasingly unacceptable.
``Despite the slim chances of either party to the conflict launching an offensive, the ceasefire accord that managed to bring an end to hostilities 15 years ago is growing increasingly precarious,`` warned Lawrence Scott Sheets, the ICG`s Caucasus Project Director. Sheets noted that ceasefire violations on the frontline have intensified of late, saying the developments could unexpectedly boil into large-scale hostilities.
Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a lengthy war that ended with the signing of a cease-fire in 1994, but Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and seven other Azerbaijani districts in defiance of international law. Peace talks have been largely fruitless so far and refugees remain stranded. The OSCE mediators submitted a peace outline, dubbed the Madrid principles to Baku and Yerevan, in late 2007. The basic principles for the conflict settlement, outlined in the document, call for ``the return of the territories surrounding Upper Garabagh to Azerbaijani control.`` The outline also covered ``a corridor linking Armenia to Upper Garabagh`` as well as a future determination of the final legal status of Upper Garabagh ``through a legally binding expression of will`` and the right of ``internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence.``
The ICG called on the countries co-chairing the mediating OSCE Minsk Group - the United States, Russia and France - to intensify efforts at encouraging the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments to achieve adoption of the document on the basic conflict settlement principles and, further, start talks on a peace accord.
The ICG officials believe reaching a framework agreement on the Garabagh problem is possible. ``Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to a crucial accord, but differences of opinion remain.``
The organization also said efforts seeking Turkey-Armenia reconciliation are facilitating a Garabagh settlement.
Regarding roadblocks for reaching peace, the ICG warned that public discontent in Armenia could prevent a framework deal on the Garabagh conflict from being reached. The main sticking point is that Azerbaijan supports Upper Garabagh`s being part of the country, while Armenia is seeking a referendum to determine the region`s status, the analysts said.
Baku has said the occupied districts must be freed and Azerbaijani refugees, displaced during the armed conflict in the early 1990s, returned home, and only after that could the status of Upper Garabagh be determined within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
The ICG also made proposals on a Garabagh settlement, with one them being Baku`s establishing direct contacts with what it called ``the de-facto authorities of Upper Garabagh.``
In its latest report on the Garabagh dispute, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said the conducive environment that has emerged in the region inspires optimism for resolving the conflict. It called on the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments and the world community to do everything possible to move the peace process forward, saying the status quo is growing increasingly unacceptable.
``Despite the slim chances of either party to the conflict launching an offensive, the ceasefire accord that managed to bring an end to hostilities 15 years ago is growing increasingly precarious,`` warned Lawrence Scott Sheets, the ICG`s Caucasus Project Director. Sheets noted that ceasefire violations on the frontline have intensified of late, saying the developments could unexpectedly boil into large-scale hostilities.
Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a lengthy war that ended with the signing of a cease-fire in 1994, but Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and seven other Azerbaijani districts in defiance of international law. Peace talks have been largely fruitless so far and refugees remain stranded. The OSCE mediators submitted a peace outline, dubbed the Madrid principles to Baku and Yerevan, in late 2007. The basic principles for the conflict settlement, outlined in the document, call for ``the return of the territories surrounding Upper Garabagh to Azerbaijani control.`` The outline also covered ``a corridor linking Armenia to Upper Garabagh`` as well as a future determination of the final legal status of Upper Garabagh ``through a legally binding expression of will`` and the right of ``internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence.``
The ICG called on the countries co-chairing the mediating OSCE Minsk Group - the United States, Russia and France - to intensify efforts at encouraging the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments to achieve adoption of the document on the basic conflict settlement principles and, further, start talks on a peace accord.
The ICG officials believe reaching a framework agreement on the Garabagh problem is possible. ``Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to a crucial accord, but differences of opinion remain.``
The organization also said efforts seeking Turkey-Armenia reconciliation are facilitating a Garabagh settlement.
Regarding roadblocks for reaching peace, the ICG warned that public discontent in Armenia could prevent a framework deal on the Garabagh conflict from being reached. The main sticking point is that Azerbaijan supports Upper Garabagh`s being part of the country, while Armenia is seeking a referendum to determine the region`s status, the analysts said.
Baku has said the occupied districts must be freed and Azerbaijani refugees, displaced during the armed conflict in the early 1990s, returned home, and only after that could the status of Upper Garabagh be determined within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
The ICG also made proposals on a Garabagh settlement, with one them being Baku`s establishing direct contacts with what it called ``the de-facto authorities of Upper Garabagh.``
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