All global assessments of market environment are not relevant to current trade
Today the trading day is exclusively for short-term traders. Despite closing the markets in many countries, investors unlikely hasten to build a position today - on Friday, in view of the upcoming weekend, as well as important Chinese economic data for the next week. Next week the Statistical Service of China will publish data on economic growth in the first quarter (it is expected a significant reduction in growth rate), inflation rates and trade balance. The global picture shows that in Europe it is growing uncertainty in the debt situation, China could demonstrate slowing, and the U.S. shows a strong rehabilitation process in the economy. There is only right choice in favor of the U.S. dollar. However, this predication is not relevant to present, as on upcoming Friday the dynamics of exchange rates will entirely depend on the short-term traders.
Australian dollar in Asia regained some lost
positions
Australian dollar`s rate of price has increased against the U.S.
currency in the Asian trading session on Thursday. This is partly a
technical correction after a significant decline during the
previous two days. In part, the players rely on publication of
positive reports on the labor market in the U.S. for March which
should increase the demand for risky assets. There was also a
desire to secure profits on short positions for the same reason.
According to the forecasts, in March, the U.S. economy would create
205,000 new jobs. If the actual figures quadrate the facts, it
would be four consecutive months, when the U.S. economy will create
more than 200,000 jobs every month. Such dynamics are consistent
with the objectives of reducing unemployment. In the medium term
Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar remains within the
framework of downward trend. The corrective movement up to 1.0364
(200-day moving average line) will not annul the established trend.
Only a steady breaking the said rates could be a cause for thinking
about the changing of trends.
JPMorgan expects the further growth of
dollar
As a result of Friday`s close the current week may be marked by the
highest reduction of euro / yen within the last seven months, one
of the reasons was the latest sales of Spanish bonds. ``Recently,
we have not seen any significant improvement in the European
area``, - says Neil O`Connor, JPMorgan analyst in New York. -
``After Greece the investors are once again focus to other problem
countries such as Spain, Portugal and Italy, in connection with
which it is expected further reduction of euro. We also expect
growth of dollar across the spectrum of the market after the
current consolidation. ``
Euro / yen is preparing to complete the week of
reduction
The common European currency has prepared to demonstrate the most
massive week reduction against the Japanese competitor for the last
seven months. During the week the currency has reduced from Y111.00
to Y107.00, but on Friday it was able to win back the part of the
movement. According to analysts, the pressure on euro is caused by
the excitement about the prospects of Spain. Yield of the Spanish
market is growing, thereby exacerbating the concerns of investors
that the country could follow in Greece`s footsteps. Many analysts
agree on the fact that there were not significant changes in Europe
in solution of debt crisis. Now, the market participants are
fixedly observing the situation in Spain, Portugal and Italy which
could be in danger. Thus, the forecasts for the common European
currency remain quite pessimistic.
The pound / dollar. Dealers` comments
The British currency at the end of U.S. session was pressed in a
very narrow range, and dealers noted that market participants were
waiting for a new driver for movement. Demand near the fifty-eighth
figure remains strong, but attempts to rise above $ 1.5830 is now
attracting strong interest in the sale, and the breakout of one of
these levels will set the pace for trading in the short term.
Dealers noted that the stabilization above $ 1.5800 may give rise
to a profit, but to restore the bulls` confidence in their
strength, the pair must go back above $ 1.5910. In the meantime,
the situation supposes a fairly significant risk of support around
$ 1.5770, and inability to defend this situation will cause
collapse of pounds. There is a rumor in the market about footsteps
around $ 1.5795, the larger is expected at breakout $ 1.5770,
though some sources also pay attention to the massive bids over the
range $ 1.5750/40.
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