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By Bloomberg

Oil traded near a one-month low as investors weighed Iraqi plans for record exports against a forecast showing U.S. crude inventories shrank for a fourth week.

Futures were little changed in London after declining the most in a week Tuesday. Iraq plans to boost exports by 26 percent to a record in June, signaling an escalation of OPEC’s strategy to defend market share. Crude inventories probably fell by 1.5 million barrels through May 22, a Bloomberg survey showed before an Energy Information Administration report Thursday.

Brent crude’s recovery from a six-year low in January has faltered this month amid speculation that a global glut will persist as rising prices spur U.S. production. Crude stockpiles in the world’s largest consumer are still more than 100 million barrels above the five-year average for this time of the year, according to the EIA.

“Investors are focused on U.S. inventories, which are forecast to drop tomorrow,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Copenhagen-based Saxo Bank A/S, said by phone. “Iraqi export plans appear to signal that the battle for market share is also being fought between OPEC members.”

Brent for July settlement declined 19 cents to $63.53 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London at 1:11 p.m. local time. Prices fell $1.80, or 2.7 percent, to $63.72 on Tuesday, the lowest close since April 22 and biggest one-day decline since May 19. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.58 to WTI.

U.S. Supplies

West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped 8 cents to $57.95 a barrel, paring an earlier gain of as much as 1.6 percent in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Total volume was about 16 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices dropped 2.8 percent this month.

U.S. crude inventories decreased to 482.2 million barrels through May 15, the EIA reported last week. Supplies are near the highest level since 1930, based on monthly records from the Energy Department’s statistical arm dating back to 1920.

Stockpiles are “making a belated, but we believe decisive, turn,” Paul Horsnell, the head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Plc in London, said in a report dated Tuesday. “Storage constraints will now not be hit, and the extreme bear scenario for the second quarter has been avoided.”

Iraqi Shipments

Oil has bottomed and increased demand has led to higher prices sooner than previously expected, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bank raised its WTI projection to $54 a barrel for 2015 and $59 for 2016 in a Tuesday report.

Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, plans to increase exports by about 800,000 barrels a day to 3.75 million in June, shipping programs showed. Exports have fallen short of scheduled shipments in three out of four months this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, meets June 5 in Vienna to discuss output policy. Saudi Arabia led a November decision to maintain the group’s output target at 30 million barrels a day, resisting calls to cut supply and support prices. The group’s 12 members pumped 31.3 million barrels a day of crude in April, exceeding their collective ceiling for an 11th consecutive month, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Saudi Arabia will maintain its strategy, which deepened an oil-price slump that caused companies around the world to cut investment and U.S. production to falter, according to Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp. in New York.