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Bonds extend global rout as oil rises; S&P 500 futures advance

6 May 2015 13:17 (UTC+04:00)
Bonds extend global rout as oil rises; S&P 500 futures advance

By Bloomberg

Bonds fell, extending a selloff that’s erased more than $410 billion in value in the past week globally as oil extended gains above $60 a barrel, boosting the outlook for inflation. U.S. equity-index futures rebounded while the dollar weakened.

The yield on 10-year German bunds rose three basis points to 0.55 percent 9:24 a.m. in London, as Treasury rates climbed to 2.20 percent. Yields on government notes from Australia to Spain increased, with Danish five-year bonds yielding more than zero for the first time since January. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped less than 0.1 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gained 0.2 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index capped its biggest two-day retreat since January. U.S. oil traded at $61.45 a barrel. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2 percent.

Global bond markets have tumbled since the start of last week as investors question the sustainability of rallies that pushed rates to record lows, amid signs price growth is reviving. Oil is trading above $60 a barrel for the first time in 2015 on prospects the biggest supply glut in 85 years is easing. Chinese shares extended the biggest drop in three months even after the official Xinhua News Agency said the nation’s bull market isn’t over.

“Interest-rate expectations across most central banks are pretty fluid at the moment, which is creating more volatility in the bond markets in general,” said Thomas Averill, a managing director in Sydney at Rochford Capital Pty, a currency and rates risk-management company. “There seems to be inflation concerns emerging in Europe, particularly in Germany, and that’s hitting bunds. Rate hike expectations have been pushed too far out.”

Bonds Shunned

Ten-year Treasuries paid 2.21 percent and German bunds offered 0.56 percent, up from a low of just 0.049 percent on April 17. Euro-area producer prices data Monday indicated declines are slowing, suggesting the risk of deflation is receding, while wrangling over aid for Greece shows little progress.

The euro strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.1233 as yields on Italian, Spanish and Italian debt jumped at least eight basis points. The yield on Denmark’s five-year government bond rose above zero for the first time since January.

With Japanese markets closed since May 1, futures on the country’s 10-year bonds have dropped 0.89 point in Singapore this week. That’s the biggest weekly retreat since Sept. 2013. About 1,650 contracts changed hands since Monday versus a five- day average of 11,798 over the preceding 30 weeks.

Stock Moves

Yields on Australian government notes due in a decade rose as much as 16 basis points to 2.96 percent, close to the 200-day moving average, before trading at 2.92 percent. Similar-maturity New Zealand yields climbed for a 13th day, a record streak.

Most of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600 dropped. PostNL NV plunged 6.5 percent as the Dutch mail company predicted a drop of 9 percent to 12 percent in domestic volumes and announced a strategic review of overseas activities.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 2.3 percent in Sydney, set for its lowest close since Feb. 12, while the Kospi index in Seoul -- which was closed Tuesday for a holiday -- lost 1.3 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index erased gains to fall 0.1 percent after plunging 1.3 percent Tuesday. A gauge of Chinese companies in the city slipped 0.3 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.6 percent after a 4.1 percent rout.

The stock market’s decline on Tuesday wasn’t the end of the bull market and could instead help market enter a “slow bull” mode advocated by regulators, the official Xinhua News Agency said in a commentary on its website.

Kiwi Slides

The New Zealand dollar lost as much as 1.3 percent to 74.59 U.S. cents after data showed New Zealand’s jobless rate held at 5.8 percent last quarter. Economists had predicted a drop to 5.5 percent. The figures spurred ASB Bank Ltd. and Deutsche Bank AG to predict interest rate cuts this year.

West Texas Intermediate crude increased 1.7 percent, climbing a second day, and helping the Bloomberg Commodity Index toward its highest close since Dec. 30. U.S. stockpiles fell by 1.5 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday, according to ForexLive.

Analysts are predicting a 1.35 million increase in inventories in the week through May 1, with government data due Wednesday. Supply gains averaged 4.87 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended April 24, the lowest level since January. --With assistance from Stephen Kirkland in London, Ben Sharples in Melbourne and Tracy Withers and Emma O’Brien in Wellington.

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