German bonds recovery on weak data shows no time for going short
By Bloomberg
There’s still life in the German government- bond rally after data showed the euro-area economy still in need of Mario Draghi’s medicine.
French securities were supported with a 21.9 billion-euro ($23.5 billion) repayment due this week set to add to a flood of liquidity that’s been supporting the market since the European Central Bank president started a 1.1 trillion-euro bond-buying program last month.
A reminder of the challenges ahead for the ECB came in the form of a report showing euro-area manufacturing and services growth unexpectedly slowed this month. French data signaled manufacturing output in the euro region’s second-largest economy contracted and services output slowed in April. Core bond markets also ended a two-day slide as European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said talks on Greece are not progressing very quickly.
“The data highlights that the recovery is still fragile,” said Allan von Mehren, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “This will keep the bond market pretty well bid. It will just underline that the ECB will have to continue buying assets and keep rates very low for a long time.”
Benchmark German 10-year yields fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 0.14 percent as of 11:08 a.m. London time. Yields climbed nine basis points in the previous two days. The 0.5 percent bund due in February 2025 rose 0.2, or 2 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 103.46.
France, Spain
French 10-year yields declined three basis points to 0.39 percent after increasing six basis points in the previous two days. The yield on similar-maturity Spanish bonds fell two basis points to 1.36 percent, and Italy’s dropped one basis point to 1.38 percent.
France’s 3.5 percent bond is due to be repaid on April 25, providing additional support for the market with no supply planned in the region before Italy auctions inflation-linked securities and two-year zero-coupon notes on Monday. The Netherlands is scheduled to sell 1.5 billion euros of 2047 bonds the following day, followed by Germany offering 4 billion euros of five-year debt on Wednesday.
Bill Gross, who built his reputation at Pacific Investment Management Co., and now manages the $1.46 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund on Tuesday described the 10-year bund as the “short of a lifetime.”
A short position is a bet an asset’s price will decline. That trade may have to wait with the region’s bonds supported by the ECB’s program that’s only been running for six weeks and is intended to last until at least September 2016.
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