Azernews.Az

By Aynur Karimova

Georgia that eyes delivering Iranian natural gas to European consumers does not have real potential as a transit route, Laurent Ruseckas, the Senior Advisor with IHS Energy, believes.

The expert told Azernews that the South Caucasus nation's desire to become a transit country for supplying Iran's gas to Europe is not necessary for Iran.

"Iran already supplies gas to Turkey via a pipeline linking Iran with the Turkish pipeline network," he said. "If Iran were in a position to export gas to Europe, it would use this existing route via Turkey. It would have no reason to add either Armenia-Georgia or Azerbaijan-Georgia as transit countries."

Georgia enjoys significant potential as a transit country for Azerbaijani gas sales to Turkey and Europe, which will start growing again in 2018 when the second stage of development of the giant Shah Deniz project begins to produce gas.

Also, the country receives some Russian gas in payment for its role as a transit country for Russian oil to Armenia that accounts for the other 10 percent.

In early January, Alireza Kameli, the Managing Director of the National Iranian Gas Export Company, said Iran plans to export its natural gas to Georgia through a pipeline.

The Islamic Republic is expected to deliver its natural gas in the amount of 8.5-14 million cubic meters per day to Georgia through Armenia. However, according to Kameli, a contract will not be signed unless the project becomes economically justified.

Gas purchase from Gazprom

Commenting on Georgian Energy Minister Kakha Kaladze's recent talks with Russian Gazprom on purchase of gas in an effort to diversify its gas supplies, Ruseckas said it would be better for Tbilisi to save long-lasting energy partnership with Azerbaijan.

"Georgia has gone from a situation of being 100 percent dependent on Russian gas to being about 90 percent depending on Azerbaijani gas. Georgia still receives some Russian gas in payment for the transit of Russia gas to Armenia via Georgia that accounts for the other 10 percent. Obviously the current situation is much better for Georgia, because its political relationship with Azerbaijan is very good while its relations with Russia remain difficult," he said.

Meanwhile, the expert believes that as long as Azerbaijan remains Georgia's main supplier, purchasing a small amount of Russian gas would not be politically dangerous and it would not be negative for Azerbaijan either.

"It is always positive for a country to diversify gas supply, which can be affected temporarily by purely technical issues that have nothing to do with politics," he noted.

Earlier, commenting on Kaladze's statement that the gas pipeline to Georgia from Azerbaijan has no additional capacity, Robert M. Cutler, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies of the Carleton University, told Azernews that it would mean that Georgia should seek non-Azerbaijani sources, at least for the near future.

"However, the situation may change in the longer term as the pipeline is upgraded to cope with additional volumes to be produced by Shah Deniz-2," he said.

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Aynur Karimova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @Aynur_Karimova

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