Azernews.Az

By Sara Rajabova

One of the main risks to food security is the growth of world population. As of today, it is estimated to number 7.042 billion by the United States Census Bureau (USCB). The population is expected to increase by two billion people over the next 40 years, which certainly will lead to a greater need for food.

Sown areas are not enough to provide nine billion people with food and should be increased. By 2050, food production must increase by 70 per cent, but land resources and in particular water, are insufficient for this plan. Around 60 per cent of the population will experience a lack of irrigation water. Food production and other sectors such as energy production will face serious competition over water.

Water deficits, which are already spurring heavy grain imports in numerous smaller countries, may soon do the same in larger countries, such as China or India. The water tables are falling in scores of countries (including northern China, the U.S., and India) due to widespread overpumping using powerful diesel and electric pumps. Other countries affected include Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. This will eventually lead to water scarcity and cutbacks in grain harvest. Even with the overpumping of its aquifers, China is developing a grain deficit. When this happens, it will almost certainly drive grain prices upward. Most of the 3 billion people projected to be born worldwide by mid-century will be born in countries already experiencing water shortages. After China and India, there is a second tier of smaller countries with large water deficits - Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, and Pakistan. Four of these already import a large share of their grain. Only Pakistan remains self-sufficient. But with a population expanding by 4 million a year, it will likely soon turn to the world market for grain.

Also, intensive farming often leads to a vicious cycle of exhaustion of soil fertility and decline of agricultural yields. Approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.

Another risk to food security is the genetic erosion in agricultural and livestock biodiversity. It is the loss of genetic diversity, including the loss of individual genes, and the loss of a particular combination of genes.

On the other hand, natural disasters, conflicts, wars, poverty, lagging development of agricultural infrastructure, excessive use of natural resources can be referred to as the main causes of famine in the world.

The on-going financial and economic crisis in the world is also a factor contributing to hunger. Along with obvious hunger, there is also hidden hunger. Lack of food rich in essential vitamins weakens the immune system, creating the conditions for catching infectious diseases, preventing their physical and mental development, reducing efficiency and increasing the risk of premature death.

Despite the increase in production volumes, more than one billion people in the world are starving or malnourished. This means that every sixth person is deprived of adequate nutrition and a healthy, active lifestyle. In fact, the average minimum energy requirement per person is about 1,800 kcal per day. The exact requirement is determined by a person's age, body size, activity level and conditions such as illness, infection, pregnancy and lactation.

One of the United Nations' main objectives in the 21st century is to reduce the number of hungry people in the world by a half. Significant success was achieved in this area in 1980-1990, but a gradual increase in chronic hunger has been observed over the last decade.

The UN Millennium Development Goals are the initiatives aimed at achieving food security in the world. In its list of goals, the first Millennium Development Goal states that the UN "is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty" and that "agricultural productivity is likely to play a key role in this if it is to be reached on time".

According to researches, the countries depending on food imports, including Latin America, North Africa and the Middle East, may suffer most of all.

In 2008, food shortages led to the people's discontent in 28 world countries. Based on scientific principles, one can say that the drought in the U.S and Russia, the increase in wheat prices in world markets and other disturbing facts related to the food crisis will be more obvious during the next five years.

Therefore, Azerbaijan exerts much effort to ensure food security. This issue is a priority for the country. Along with the development of domestic production, the country is taking measures to fully provide itself with foodstuffs imported into the country. In particular, the Azerbaijani government has exempted grain, meslin (wheat and rye mixture) and flour from VAT.

According to statistics, Azerbaijan produced 251,800 tons of meat in live weight, more than 1.008 million tons of milk, about 700 million eggs in January-July 2012. The production of meat increased by 3.5 per cent, while that of milk -- by 7.1 per cent, eggs 18.5 per cent compared to the corresponding period of 2011. Moreover, around 521,100 tons of potatoes, 713,500 tons of vegetables, 295,300 tons of water melons and melons, 162,700 tons of fruits and berries and 637 tons of grapes were harvested. Grain and legume productivity increased.

In order to solve the hunger and food security problem it is necessary to make radical changes in the Azerbaijani and world food systems. A third of the land cultivated in the world is being used to grow animal feed. This means that it is necessary to use water five to10 times more in cattle breeding than in plant-growing. It is necessary to reduce the use of meat products several times to save water.

Animal products account for around 20 per cent of 3,000 calories consumed by each person on average. If this figure is reduced by only five per cent, irrespective of the region, 35-45 per cent of water can be saved. If one consumes 2,200 instead of 3,000 calories, the water economy will decrease three to five fold.

It can be concluded that the prevention of the dual use or unusable agricultural products, changes in nutrition and the implementation of these measures would help to prevent hunger and ensure food security.