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Elnur Enveroglu

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When Donald Trump declared earlier this summer that Azerbaijan was “on the right side of history” and that the Trans-Regional Integration Project (TRIP) would “reshape the future of Eurasian trade,” many in Washington dismissed it as yet another bold flourish from the US president. Yet behind the bombast lay a sober truth: the geopolitical arithmetic of Eurasia is shifting, and both the United States and the broader region are being forced to keep up.

Trump’s remarks, made shortly after the landmark 8 August Azerbaijan–Armenia peace meeting in Washington, reflected a new American willingness to insert itself into the South Caucasus peace process. This was not the usual rhetorical dip into regional diplomacy, but it was a carefully calculated move. For the first time in years, Washington stepped in as the primary broker for a document now known informally as the Washington Declaration, a seven-clause framework outlining the contours of an eventual peace settlement.

The significance of that meeting should not be underestimated. It represented not merely a step forward in the long and painful post-conflict process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also a signal that the United States was ready to reclaim strategic ground in a region long dominated by Russian influence. For many observers, the Washington talks were proof that Baku and Yerevan had finally reached the point where a negotiated future was within touching distance. For the United States, it was a chance to reassert itself as a security provider in a corridor where European and Asian interests increasingly intersect.

In private conversations with diplomats in Baku and Washington, the same point is repeated: the United States simply could not afford to sit on the sidelines. Russia’s position in the South Caucasus has weakened since it invaded Ukraine, while China’s expanding economic footprint has made the region a crucial link in its broader Belt and Road calculus. If Washington stood idle, the strategic vacuum would be filled by others.

The 8 August meeting was therefore less about symbolism and more about shaping a durable political architecture. American officials, including Trump’s own advisers, have long argued that stability in the South Caucasus is vital for the Middle Corridor, a trans-Eurasian route linking Central Asia to Europe through the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan sits at the heart of this route, not merely as a transit point but as a state that has invested billions in ports, railways and logistics networks. Any long-term connectivity vision, whether American, European or Asian, must run through Baku.

Trump’s pointed praise for Azerbaijan’s leadership was therefore not accidental. The United States understands that without Baku’s buy-in, much of Asia’s westward trade will remain vulnerable to unpredictability, chokepoints and political friction. Azerbaijan’s geopolitical leverage has risen precisely because it now anchors a corridor the world increasingly depends on.

Meanwhile, several thousand kilometres to the east, Central Asia is quietly undergoing a foreign-policy transformation. For decades, the region balanced cautiously between Moscow and Beijing, with Washington playing a marginal role. But the global race for critical minerals, energy corridors and diversified supply chains has changed the equation.

Recent months have seen a flurry of agreements between the United States and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. These include cooperation on critical minerals, green technologies, semiconductor-related supply chains and agriculture. What was once a region diplomatically adrift is now one that Washington courts with a seriousness not seen since the early 2000s.

American officials have been blunt: if the United States is to prevent a world in which China controls the lion’s share of strategic minerals, from rare earths to lithium, tungsten and beryllium, then Central Asia must become a key partner. The region, rich in unexplored deposits, is no longer on the periphery of global politics. It is front and centre.

But minerals alone do not move markets. They must be transported, refined and shipped to consumers. This brings the narrative firmly back to Azerbaijan.

The Middle Corridor: from concept to backbone

For years, the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, was treated as a technical detail in grand economic plans. Today it has become a strategic artery, and Azerbaijan is its beating heart. The route runs from China across Kazakhstan to the Caspian Sea, where cargo then crosses to Azerbaijan, continues by rail through Georgia and exits through Türkiye into Europe.

Within it lies the even more politically charged element: the Zangezur Corridor. Long discussed, often disputed and frequently delayed, this link connecting mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan has gradually moved from theoretical blueprint to actionable project. If fully operationalised, it would shorten transit times dramatically and provide an uninterrupted east-west spine connecting Central Asia to Europe.

For the Central Asian republics, especially Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, this is a dream come true. Their exports have long been trapped between dependence on Russian-controlled routes and the high political costs of dealing with Chinese transit logistics. The Middle Corridor offers a third way: a path to global markets that is faster, less politically entangled and supported by Western partners.

It is no surprise that nearly every Central Asian leader visiting Washington in the past year has made a point of emphasising the Middle Corridor. For them, Azerbaijan is not just another transit state; it is the lynchpin holding the entire project in place.

Azerbaijan’s unique diplomatic posture, balancing relations with Russia, Türkiye, the West, Central Asia and much of the Muslim world, allows it to act as a bridge at a time when bridges are in short supply. Baku has crafted a foreign policy that is clear-eyed and pragmatic, avoiding zero-sum traps while leveraging its infrastructure and energy resources to maintain autonomy.

In this sense, Trump’s remarks about Azerbaijan’s pivotal role were not just political flattery. They were an acknowledgement of reality. As the United States deepens its economic and security engagement with Central Asia, it finds that it needs Azerbaijan more than ever, not only as a transit partner but as a stable political actor in an often-unsettled neighbourhood.

The renewed American focus on the region is not occurring in a vacuum. Russia remains a major security actor, despite a weakened capacity. China will not sit back as Washington expands its partnerships in Central Asia. Türkiye, meanwhile, continues its push to deepen pan-regional economic and cultural integration. Europe, anxious about its energy security, has also accelerated its engagement with Baku.

This makes competition inevitable. Yet it also creates opportunities for pragmatic cooperation. If the Middle Corridor becomes a space for managed coexistence rather than confrontation, it could emerge as one of the most important stabilising frameworks in Eurasia.

For this to happen, the 8 August peace process must solidify into a lasting settlement. The South Caucasus cannot become a reliable transit hub if it remains trapped in cycles of tension. Washington’s mediation has opened a door, but it is up to Baku and Yerevan to walk through it.

In hindsight, Trump’s comments may be remembered not for their rhetoric but for their timing. The world is entering an era of intense competition over minerals, trade routes and influence. Central Asia is no longer a geopolitical afterthought, and Azerbaijan is no longer a regional player boxed into its neighbourhood. Both now sit at the crossroads of interests far larger than themselves.

The future of Eurasia’s connectivity, whether through TRIP, the Middle Corridor or the Zangezur link, will depend heavily on whether regional and global powers choose confrontation or cooperation. For now, the momentum is on the side of connectivity.

And as the 8 August peace meeting suggested, the United States is ready to return to the board, willing to take up the role of mediator and strategic partner. Azerbaijan, positioned at the centre of Eurasia’s new transport and political architecture, holds the cards that others increasingly need.