U.S. lawmakers in new drive to slash Iran's oil sales to a trickle

U.S. lawmakers are embarking this summer on a campaign to deal a
deeper blow to Iran's diminishing oil exports, and while they are
still working out the details, analysts say the ultimate goal could
be a near total cut-off, Reuters reported.
Such an extreme goal would risk antagonizing China and India, the
biggest remaining buyers of Iranian crude, and could push oil
prices higher in a hit to the global economy.
Iran denies its nuclear program is aimed at building a bomb, but
skeptical Western powers have become increasingly frustrated and
Israel has said it could take military action if diplomacy and
sanctions fail to rein in Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Both parties in the U.S. Congress are pressing for tougher
sanctions, betting that a resurgence in U.S. oil output and signs
of ample global supply will prevent prices from rising.
Last month, during a House of Representatives committee meeting on
a bill toughening sanctions, a new clause was inserted that for the
first time would require importers to cut purchase of Iranian crude
by a specific volume: 1 million barrels per day (bpd) within one
year.
But here's the catch: Iran's crude exports already fell to 700,000
bpd in May, raising questions about what the starting point for
such a target would be.
The new language has yet to be incorporated into the official text
of the bill and may change. At the hearing, lawmakers said the
measure was meant to cut shipments by two-thirds, suggesting last
year's 1.5 million bpd export was the starting point and 500,000
bpd the goal.
But some energy experts said there was growing momentum in Congress
behind a push to cut Iranian exports even further - as close to
zero as possible.
There is overwhelming Congressional support for action to choke
funding to Iran's nuclear program.
On the same day as the House debate, the Senate voted 99-0 on a
resolution urging Obama to support Israel if it attacks Iran's
nuclear facilities.
The House's "Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013", largely an
effort to amend and toughen existing sanctions, passed the House
Foreign Affairs Committee by a unanimous voice vote on May 22 and
is expected to easily pass the full 435-member chamber, where it
already has about 340 co-sponsors.
A defined measure of cuts in oil exports - rather than the vague
"significant reductions" required by the initial legislation passed
in late 2011 - may survive in the Senate.
"It's very possible it could find its way into the final product,"
a senior Senate aide said.
Daniel Sternoff, senior managing director at Medley Global
Advisors, a consultancy which advises hedge funds and investors,
said he expects "a pretty significant volumetric requirement" in
the bill. "This is really throwing the entire kitchen at Iran," he
said.
Several analysts said a final bill could be approved as early as
August, though others in Washington do not expect action until the
fall.
While Congress has long led the charge on getting tough on Iran,
the State Department has urged a measured path.
It is not in the U.S. interest to cause any importer economy to
"tank" because of the sanctions, Wendy Sherman, the State
Department official leading talks with Iran over its nuclear
program, told a Senate hearing on Tuesday. "We are all
interdependent."
President Barack Obama is expected to talk about weaning Beijing
away from Iranian oil when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping
this week.
China buys about half of Iran's crude exports. It has joined in the
international effort to reduce its purchases, but whether it will
be willing to go further is the key question.
India accounts for around a quarter of Iran's exports, while Turkey
buys around one eighth.
"If you ask for too much too quickly from countries like China,
Turkey and India, you risk getting nothing at all," says Jason
Bordoff, professor and director of the Center on Global Energy
Policy at Columbia University and a senior White House energy
advisor until late last year.
Even if tougher new curbs are imposed, exports would likely dwindle
but not disappear, says Sternoff.
Oil exports of 500,000 barrels per day or less would force Iran to
shut in more oil wells, potentially causing problems for some of
the country's oilfields, said Mehdi Varzi, a former official of the
National Iranian Oil Co.
"Iran will not be able to thrive on 500,000 barrels a day of oil
exports. The government is surviving, but its domestic budget is
facing an unprecedented squeeze," said Varzi, who now runs an
energy consultancy in Britain. "But will that be enough to tip Iran
into negotiating?"
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