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Oil prices fall down as speculations dominate

10 October 2016 17:16 (UTC+04:00)
Oil prices fall down as speculations dominate

By Nigar Abbasova

World oil prices fell on October 10 due to ambiguity over the deal to cut output, easing off four-month highs in the market and even strengthening skeptical views over the deal.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures were trading at $51.70 per barrel, down by 23 cents, while WTI futures stood at $49.51 a barrel, recording a decrease of 30 cents.

Speculations strengthened doubts over the promised OPEC production cuts, which were unofficially agreed in the Algeria meeting, becoming the first consent on production cut in almost eight years.

OPEC, the current output of which stands at a record level of 33.6 million bpd, plans to clinch a deal the output cut by the time it meets in Vienna.

Meanwhile, plans to curb oil output are one of the crucial topics being discussed on the sidelines of the ongoing 23rd World Energy Congress in Istanbul, while the meeting has a character of bilateral gatherings rather than one single meeting of both OPEC and non-OPEC states.

The meeting is currently a key focus for the global oil market as traders try to anticipate the outcome of the next OPEC meeting. No decision is expected to be taken in the Turkish city; however, it will be a chance for the officials to discuss the next step following preliminary deal in Algeria.

Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, speaking at the Congress already announced that the cartel should not cut oil supply too steeply, while his statement was assessed as a hint at milder market intervention.

Analysts express their concerns, saying that all previous hints by the cartel at output cuts have always resulted in fails to reach production freeze. The minister, however, said he is optimistic about the production deal that could be reached by November.

OPEC members Iran and Iraq are not attending Istanbul meetings, despite previous expectations that they would be present.

Moreover, the fact that further complicates the deal is that certain OPEC members demand to be treated as exceptions. Namely Libya and Nigeria, which got a pass to produce "at maximum levels that make sense" due to recent domestic unrest in the countries, and Iran, the energy sphere of which was considerably affected by sanctions.

Pouring cold water on expectations, Iraq, one of the biggest producers of the cartel said over the weekend that it wants to raise output further in 2017, thus placing a bulk of the production cuts on other oil producers.

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Nigar Abbasova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @nigyar_abbasova

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