Kazakhstan expects economic growth in 2019-2020
By Abdul Kerimkhanov
A forecast about the economy of Kazakhstan until 2020 was presented at a meeting in Almaty on December 5.
A regular meeting of representatives of the National Bank with financial experts took place in Almaty.
During the meeting, the issues of the monetary policy of the regulator, the situation in the monetary and foreign exchange markets were discussed, press service of the regulator states.
As the director of the department of research and statistics, Vitaly Tutushkin told at the meeting, the next forecast round at the National Bank was completed. The forecast was developed for the period from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2020.
Vitaly Tutushkin said that department considered 3 scenarios for the price of Brent crude oil: 40, 60 and 70 dollars per barrel. He noted that $ 60 per barrel of Brent oil was considered as the baseline scenario. As he said, this decision was made considering the current price levels, as well as forecasts of market participants and international financial institutions. ”On the part of external factors, we expect a slowdown in external demand against the background of accelerating inflation in the countries - trading partners,” Vitaly Tutushkin commented.
According to forecasts, annual inflation in Kazakhstan in 2019 will begin a smooth entry into the new target corridor of 4-6 percent, being near its upper limit. Vitaly Tutushkin said that the economic growth rate is estimated at 2.7 percent in 2019 and 2.7 percent in the first half of 2020.
“The prerequisites for economic growth have not changed. The main driver of economic growth will be the growth of domestic consumer demand. The positive dynamics of investment activity, primarily in the mining industry and housing construction, will continue. The increase in exports of goods and services will be associated with further growth in oil and gas condensate production at the Kashagan field,” he concluded.
The economy of Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia, the second economy of the post-Soviet space. From January 1, 2015, the republic is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Kazakhstan is a signatory of the Free Trade Agreement with CIS countries. In addition, as a member of the EAEU, Kazakhstan is party to the Free Trade Agreement between the EAEU and Vietnam.
Kazakhstan became a World Trade Organization (WTO) member on November 30, 2015.
Kazakhstan’s GDP grew 4 percent in January-July 2018. Inflation remains at a three-year low. Since the beginning of the year inflation was 2.7 percent, and the annual inflation was 5.9 percent.
Today, the economy of Kazakhstan is developing in conditions of gradual improvement of the internal and external economic situation. In the phase of accelerating economic activity, the country has also entered at a pace that is faster than economic growth.
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Abdul Kerimkhanov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @AbdulKerim94
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