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Emerging stocks Ddcline amid crisis signs from Russia to Greece

29 January 2015 19:13 (UTC+04:00)
Emerging stocks Ddcline amid crisis signs from Russia to Greece

By Bloomberg

Emerging-market stocks posted their biggest drop in three weeks as China intensified its crackdown on speculative trading and concern grew the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is pushing their economies into a crisis. The ruble and Russian Eurobonds tumbled.

Citic Securities Co. and Haitong Securities Co. declined in Shanghai as regulators planned a new round of checks into the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. The ruble weakened for a second day, extending the worst performance among emerging- market currencies this year. The Turkish lira slid to a record. Greek banks rebounded from a slump driven by the new government’s pledge to end austerity.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.3 percent to 971.45 at 1:30 p.m. in London. The gauge has advanced 1.6 percent this month, the best start to a year since 2012, as the European Central Bank unveiled a $1.25 trillion bond-purchase plan and countries from India to Turkey cut interest rates.

“People are just not really putting a lot of risk on the table,” Regis Chatellier, a London-based emerging-market credit strategist at Societe Generale SA, said by phone. “You have the restructuring risks in Greece and Ukraine, maybe Venezuela tomorrow. A lot of investors have moved out of Russia, but it still represents a major macro-economic risk over time.”

Multiple Crises

Greek bank-deposit outflows accelerated to record levels last week, while Standard & Poor’s said it may cut Greece’s credit rating, already five levels below investment grade, should the new government fail to get further financial support. Ukraine plans to restructure its bonds, raising concern it’s unable to raise funds to meet its liabilities. Venezuela’s bonds have lost 20 percent this month, the most in emerging markets, as the country reels under a shortage of dollars.

In China, the securities regulator will extend its scrutiny of margin-lending practices to 46 firms, after an initial 45 were checked, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. Margin- based borrowing, which can magnify losses for investors when shares fall, rose to a record on Shanghai’s exchange this week.

Citic Securities, China’s biggest brokerage, dropped the most in a week, while Haitong Securities slid for a fourth day. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.3 percent, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index retreated 1.9 percent.

Russian Assets

The ruble weakened 1.7 percent to 69.1995 versus the dollar, extending its slide this month to 12 percent. The yield on Russia’s international bonds due in March 2030 climbed four basis points to 7.41 percent, extending the increase this week to 51 basis points. The dollar-denominated RTS Index of equities fell 1 percent. OAO TMK fell 2.5 percent after its French peer Vallourec SA announced a $1.4 billion writedown because of plunging oil prices.

The slide in Russian assets came before European Union foreign ministers meet in Brussels to discuss expanding sanctions on the country for the escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The lira fell for a fifth day, losing as much as 1.4 percent to a record of 2.4181 against the dollar, after Turkey’s central bank said it may hold an emergency meeting next week to lower interest rates again. Policy makers cut the main rate 50 basis points to 7.75 percent on Jan. 20.

The won fell 0.9 percent to a three-week low amid speculation monetary easing by global central banks will prompt South Korea to cut record-low interest rates. Malaysia’s ringgit extended losses on concern a protracted drop in crude will weigh on the oil-exporting nation.

Greek Rebound

Alpha Bank AE, Eurobank Ergasias SA and National Bank of Greece SA rallied at least 9 percent today, as the FTSE/Athex Banks Index rebounded from its worst drop on record yesterday. Greek lenders are capable of surviving market turbulence as a lot of “good work” has gone into strengthening their balance sheets, Daniele Nouy, head of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Dubai’s DFM General Index dropped 1.7 percent, as Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC slid.

In Belarus, the government’s 2015 Eurobonds trimmed their decline after President Alexandr Lukashenko clarified an earlier comment and said the nation may refinance its debt and not restructure them.

The second-day drop in the gauge of developing-nation equities sent its valuation to 11.5 times the projected earnings of its members, down from a four-year high of 11.7 on Jan. 27. The MSCI World Index of developed-market stocks trades at a multiple of 15.8.

The premium investors demand to hold emerging-market debt rather than U.S. Treasuries narrowed three basis points to 389, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.

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