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Euro inflation slows to 0.3% as ECB set to discuss stimulus

28 November 2014 15:43 (UTC+04:00)
Euro inflation slows to 0.3% as ECB set to discuss stimulus
By Bloomberg

Euro-area inflation slowed in November to match a five-year low, prodding the European Central Bank toward expanding its unprecedented stimulus program.

Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That was in line with the median forecast of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Unemployment held at 11.5 percent in October, Eurostat said in a separate report.

Continued low inflation is keeping pressure on the ECB’s Governing Council to add to its package of measures aimed at reviving the economy. President Mario Draghi, who will lead a meeting of policy makers on Dec. 4, says he wants to raise inflation “as fast as possible” and repeated yesterday that policy makers are united in their commitment to do more if needed.

“The longer inflation remains this low, the easier it will be for the idea that inflation expectations are getting unanchored to get into people’s heads,” said Martin Lueck, an economist at UBS Group AG in Frankfurt. “This would push the ECB to act.”

The euro stayed lower after the announcement, trading at $1.2450 at 11:18 a.m. in Frankfurt.

Part of the slowdown in inflation is related to a drop in prices for oil and other commodities. Crude oil has fallen more than 30 percent in the past three months.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy, food tobacco and alcohol, stayed at 0.7 percent in November.

ECB Measures

“We have to be very watchful that low inflation does not start percolating through the economy,” Draghi said in Frankfurt on Nov. 21. “A channel I particularly want to focus on is the risk that a too prolonged period of low inflation becomes embedded in inflation expectations.”

The Frankfurt-based central bank has started buying covered bonds and asset-backed securities as it attempts to bring its balance sheet back to the level it had at the beginning of 2012. This comes after it cut rates to record lows and offered long- term loans to banks to fuel credit.

In a speech published on the ECB website yesterday, Draghi said time is needed for the “positive effects” of the current stimulus to be felt.

“However, should it become necessary to further address risks of too prolonged a period of low inflation, the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate,” he said.

Inflation in the euro area has been at less than half the ECB’s goal of just below 2 percent for more than a year. The institution will update its projections next week after forecasting in September that inflation will average 1.1 percent in 2015 and 1.4 percent in 2016. This compares with European Commission forecasts of 0.8 percent and 1.5 percent.

“In December, the ECB will have to slash its staff projections for 2015 growth and inflation,” Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank in London, wrote in a note to clients. “That warrants a further monetary stimulus.”

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