Will Turkey play trump-ard at big "gas" table?

By Emil Ismayilov
Turkey continues playing a trump-card of its geographical
location on the border between Europe and Asia. Russia wants to
supply additional volumes of gas to the European market via the
so-called "Turkish Stream" through Turkey.
A statement by Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources
Taner Yildiz that after determining the route of the ‘Turkish
Stream’ gas pipeline, a healthy competition has begun between this
gas pipeline and the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline project (TANAP),
implemented by Azerbaijan as part of gas supplies to Europe, the
next move was made.
Along with Azerbaijan, Turkey urged Turkmenistan to join the TANAP
project, which is part of the "Southern Gas Corridor", during a
meeting of foreign ministers of the three countries in
Ashgabat.
Given the recent surprising events on the gas market,
Turkmenistan's joining the Southern Gas Corridor is not far away,
and this idea has its logical confirmation.
Firstly, back in 1999, Turkey and Turkmenistan signed a contract
for the supply of 15.6 billion cubic meters of gas. Secondly, the
proposal of Turkmenistan’s joining TANAP was already announced
during last year's visit of the Turkish president to Ashgabat.
To deliver Turkmenistan's energy resources to Europe, a gas
pipeline of only 300 kilometers must be built. The construction of
a pipeline along the bottom of the Caspian Sea will allow to
deliver Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan and then to transport it to the
European market through Georgia and Turkey.
In fact, it is much easier to implement the project of construction
of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline compared to the Turkish Stream,
because of the lesser work volume required.
We can recall the statement of the Russian side that the Turkish
stream will pass 660 kilometers in the old corridor of South Stream
and 250 kilometers in the new corridor (towards the European part
of Turkey).
Accordingly, the construction costs will be significantly lower in
the first case. On the other hand, only preliminary calculations
have been made for the Turkish Stream, while there is significant
development within the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project which has
long been considered.
The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project is not a pipedream and it
can be easily implemented after reaching a clear agreement. The
proof here is that real work is underway within the South Caucasus
Pipeline Expansion project, construction of TANAP and TAP which
will allow the Caspian Sea gas to enter Europe.
Moreover, the European Union, which is interested in the
diversification of the gas supply routes and sources bypassing
Russia, pays great attention to the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline
project.
Although Turkmenistan exports its gas in three directions – to
Russia, China and Iran – the creation of the western route can open
a completely new page in this country’s development history.
Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that it is ready for the transit
of Turkmen gas. On the other hand, Europe is ready to receive that
gas, while Turkmenistan, which most likely hasn’t yet received an
attractive offer, still says it is ready to sell gas (up to 40
billion cubic meters per year) on its own border.
However, even the absence of a decision on the Trans-Caspian gas
pipeline doesn’t stop the Turkish side, which has long aspired for
the EU, and now it has a chance to win back.
Even given the fact that Turkey is a strategic partner of
Azerbaijan, in the current condition in the gas market it is trying
to snatch a bigger piece of the pie, resorting to open speculation
and being drawn deeper into this rather complicated game...
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