Azernews.Az

Qabil Ashirov

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Finally, seeing the endorsement of the deal on rare earth between the US and Ukraine, many who believe in democratic values and are committed to the territorial integrity of countries breathe sighs of relief. Needless to say, the capacity of Ukraine to withstand Russian aggression will determine the future of the world. Unfortunately, due to the mismanagement of previous Ukrainian presidents, who collaborated with the Kremlin, the country’s defense capacity was crippled and it became totally dependent on foreign aid. Despite Zelensky’s best efforts, some remnants of the former regimes managed to find their way into the current government.

Being well aware of the situation, Trump demanded a guarantee from Kyiv after ascending to power. The first time Kyiv and Washington tried to sign an agreement on February 28, 2025, the meeting ended in a spat that frustrated many who were eager to see democracy prevail over aggression. Unfoundedly, many threw the US government under the bus. However, Azerbaijanis were among the few nations in the world who grasped the meaning of the deal proposed by Donald Trump and the fears of the Ukrainians about potential future Russian attacks. It is not because we are the smartest nation on Earth, but because we had to go through the same difficulties that Ukraine is facing today. Like Ukraine, Azerbaijan was subjected to aggression from its neighbour, and 20 per cent of its territory was invaded. Even worse, under the pressure of the Armenian lobbies, the countries in the West, which today support Ukraine and speak about the territorial integrity of nations, stood with the aggressor.

Swallowing a bitter pill, Azerbaijan ceased the war with Armenia and signed a deal with leading oil companies to export its oil, left over from Russian exploitation. Britain and the US companies took the lion's share of the deal, which is called the "Agreement of the Century." In contrast, Azerbaijan got 20 per cent.

Many believe that this deal became the guarantee for Azerbaijan and played the role of a cushion against the economic crisis. Thanks to this deal, foreign investment and foreign currency flooded the country, and soon Azerbaijan’s military budget exceeded the Armenian state budget. Finally, after thirty years, Azerbaijan was able to liberate its invaded territories and incarcerate several separatist leaders. Today, Armenia is running around like a headless chicken, begging for assistance from various countries, such as Iran, India, France, and more.

The fears of the Ukrainians are understandable. However, they should not forget that Russia is a country doomed to further dissolution. Compare countries backed by Russia with those backed by the US. Take Armenia or Bashar Assad’s Syria, for example. Both of them imploded. All regimes supported by Russia are stumbling one by one. Sooner or later, this process will reach the Kremlin as well.

Taking a break and liaising with the US will boost the economy of Ukraine. Cooperating with American companies is equivalent to gaining an American guarantee against any potential attacks. The rare earth agreement will flood not only foreign investment and currency into Ukraine, but also new technology and know-how. Besides, Ukraine has a large defence industry potential and human capital. It is crystal clear that, in the wake of a peace agreement, Ukraine will become one of the biggest weapons manufacturers and exporters. In addition, Ukraine is famous for its agricultural products. Long story short, Ukraine has everything to surpass Russia in the near future. Seeing Russian migrants working on Ukrainian pig farms in the near future is not a dream but a reality. The world once witnessed this when the Berlin Wall was demolished, and then Russian citizens filled the streets of NATO countries, from Turkiye to Canada, to seek jobs. Unfortunately, Russia did not learn a lesson from that situation and blindly stuck to its previous customs, which means the world will witness the same situation — the proverbial history repeats itself.