World Bank reveals GDP forecast for Central Asia

By Laman Sadigova

The World Bank has retained its GDP forecasts for some Central Asian countries for 2016.

The Bank kept its GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan for 2016 at 7.5 percent, according to a released "Global Economic Prospects" report of the bank.

In October 2015, the Bank lowered the forecast of economic growth in Uzbekistan for 2015 from 7.6 percent to 7 percent, from 7.8 percent to 7.5 percent in 2016, in 2017 - up to 7.7 percent versus the previously forecasted eight percent.

The WB notes that the Uzbek economy is influenced by weak economic indicators of major trading partners of the country, primarily Russia, as well as declining prices for major export goods of the country. Significant reduction in remittances from abroad also has an impact on the economic situation in the republic.

The Bank also expects reduction of the inflow of direct foreign investments into the country. Also, the WB said that Uzbekistan sustained significant extension of fiscal reserves in 2015.

The WB also raised GDP growth forecast of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan by 0.4 percent and one percent in 2016.

Tajikistan's GDP growth will amount 4.8 percent in 2016, according to the bank’s report. The WB expects GDP growth at 5.5 percent in 2017 and 2018.

Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth is forecasted by WB to stand at 4.2 percent in 2016, 3.4 percent - in 2017, 4.3 percent - in 2018.

Kyrgyzstan, and, in particular, Tajikistan are greatly dependent on money transfers from Russia, said the report.

According to the WB estimates, Tajikistan’s GDP growth reached 4.2 percent, while Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth was two percent in 2015.


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