Azernews.Az

By Jamila Babayeva

The new president of Georgia will remain loyal to boosting economic and diplomatic relations with neighboring countries.

"It is of vital importance to further economic and diplomatic relations with neighboring Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Armenia," Georgia's president for the next five years Giorgi Margvelashvili said in his inaugural speech on November 17.

Speaking about the foreign and regional policy priorities he noted the importance of continuing the policy of Georgia's integration in the EU and NATO and said that Georgia's well-balanced regional policy must serve as a unifier of interests in the Caucasus.

On November 19 the new President signed his first decree which confirmed the appointment of Interior Minister Irakli Garibashvili as the country's new prime minister. According to the new version of constitution of Georgia which came into force on November 17, Irakli Garibashvili as a PM will lead the foreign policy of the state.

Change in power is always bound to change in policy. But now the matter is how these significant changes on the Georgian political scene will affect the country's regional policy, in particular relations with neighboring Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Azerbaijan-Georgia relations have always been characterized as strategic and friendly ones, while Turkey-Georgia relations were exemplary.

Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey are connected by several important regional projects, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway will connect them to Europe. Azerbaijan and Turkey are also the most significant trading partners of Georgia.

PM, not president to determine foreign policy

Director of International School of Caucasus Studies, Georgian political analyst Ghia Nodia believes that there will be no significant changes in the regional policy of Georgia under the new president and prime minister, as they represent Georgian Dream led by the former PM Ivanishvili.

Nodia further told Azernews that the new version of the constitution of Georgia, which came into force on November 17, significantly cuts presidential powers. "The new president will have few chances to set the foreign policy. So, there is no basis to expect for any changes in the regional policy of Georgia, including the country's relations with Azerbaijan."

Azerbaijani political analyst Zardusht Alizade shares the opinion of his Georgian colleague.

"Not yet known how the new President will influence the foreign policy," Alizade told Azernews. "But Giorgi Margvelashvili will be a collective president of "Georgian Dream". Regional policy of Georgia will be traditional and under the new president will be focused on avoidance of conflicts and settlement of disputes through coordination. As after August 2008 Georgia doesn't need new challenges".

Large scale military action was launched in South Ossetia on August 8, 2008. Later, Russian troops occupied Tskhinvali and expelled the Georgian military. Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in late August. In response, Tbilisi ended diplomatic relations with Moscow and has called the two unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia occupied territories.

Alizade added that Georgia will continue developing and strengthening strategic partnership with Azerbaijan, as they are vital for Georgia and its people. "Both countries are the closest partners and allies because of the geography and economy. Pragmatism will be the foundation of relations. Further development and strengthening of cooperation between two countries should be expected", Alizade said.

Attentive policy with Russia is inevitable

Turkish experts also believe that despite changes in state power, Georgia will not change its regional policy, including policy towards Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The head of Center for International Strategy and Security Studies, Turkish expert Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol told Azernews that Georgian regional policy is unlikely to change radically. "Georgia now should take into account the regional vulnerability. Attentive policy with Russia is inevitable for Tbilisi. Today, world powers have a serious struggle for influence on Georgia. The country is unable to determine its fate and time is needed for this," Erol said.

He said that Georgia should return to the period before 2008 and re-take its place at regional initiative with Azerbaijan and Turkey. "Firstly, it depends on steps of Ankara and Baku. Evidently, after some time Tbilisi will be included in this process. Otherwise, regional stability, Georgia's independence, and Turkey-Azerbaijan regional initiative may weaken," he added.

Erol believes that Georgia should develop a trusting relationship between Russia and the U.S. to actively join the Azerbaijan-Turkey regional initiative. "Otherwise a second crisis like that of 2008 will be inevitable," he stressed.

Another Turkish expert Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu told Azernews that the new President of Georgia Giorgi Margvelashvili will not have an active foreign policy mechanism as former president Mikheil Saakashvili, as the new constitution cuts powers of the president.

"Georgia as a transit country owes its wealth to Azerbaijan and Turkey. Georgia even benefits from Azerbaijan and Turkey's problem with Armenia. Therefore, whoever comes to the power in Georgia, there will not be any changes in the country's policy towards Azerbaijan and Turkey."