Azernews.Az

By News Center

Uganda’s decision to suspend defense and military cooperation with Turkiye may be linked not only to its demand that Ankara extradite Ugandan opposition commentator Fred Lumbuye, but also to uncertainty surrounding the future of the African mission in Somalia.

Several sources familiar with the situation told Middle East Eye that the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) announced on September 20 the immediate suspension of all forms of defense and military cooperation with Ankara.

Ugandan media had earlier reported that the decision followed demonstrations outside the Turkish Embassy in Kampala. Participants in the protests, who have been linked to the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), demanded the extradition from Turkiye of political commentator Fred Lumbuye, who has lived in the country since 2013.

However, MEE sources said the Lumbuye case may have merely served as a trigger for a broader dispute linked to Uganda’s military presence in Somalia and Turkiye’s growing role in the country’s security sector.

“The whole issue is connected to the presence of the Ugandan army in Somalia, which is closely linked to security relations between Somalia and Turkiye,” one source told the publication.

Around 4,500 Ugandan troops are currently deployed in Somalia as part of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Another approximately 2,000 troops are stationed in the country under a bilateral agreement.

The future of the mission has been thrown into question after the United States informed the African Union in July of its intention to end funding by the end of the year for the UN support office in Somalia, which provides important logistical assistance to AUSSOM.

The development has raised questions about the mission’s future financing and the viability of maintaining foreign military contingents in Somalia.

According to MEE sources, Somali authorities have asked Uganda to end its military presence in the country, citing the growing capabilities of Somali army units trained by Turkiye. Turkish military personnel have trained around 25,000 Somali soldiers in Mogadishu in recent years, while at least another 10,000 commandos have received training in Turkiye.

Uganda, meanwhile, receives at least $1,000 per month for each soldier participating in the mission, according to the sources. If the Ugandan contingent were to be fully withdrawn, Kampala could lose between $5 million and $6 million in monthly revenue, equivalent to around $60 million to $72 million annually.

“Ending the mission could mean the loss of millions of dollars in annual revenue for Uganda,” one source said.

According to the source, Uganda is seeking a solution to the crisis from Turkiye because it considers Ankara one of the key actors shaping Somalia’s emerging security architecture.

Tunç Demirtaş, a researcher at the Ankara-based think tank SETA, said that the strengthening capabilities of Somali security forces are allowing Mogadishu to gradually assume greater responsibility for the country’s security.

According to Demirtaş, Somali state institutions are already capable of providing security in the capital and surrounding areas, while the need for foreign assistance is declining as state institutions become stronger.

At the same time, a reduction in the international military presence could have significant economic consequences for countries that have deployed troops to Somalia for many years.

According to sources, Ankara is seeking a solution to the dispute out of concern that the confrontation could affect Turkish business interests in Uganda. In particular, a contract worth around $3 billion for railway construction, awarded to Turkish construction company Yapı Merkezi, could be at risk.

AFP reported that amid the deterioration in relations, Kampala could consider canceling the contract as well as expelling Turkish nationals from the country.