IMF raises CIS growth projections
The International Monetary Fund has increased economic growth
projections for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
countries in 2010 from 0.3 percent to 4.3 percent.
In 2011, CIS economies are also expected to grow at an average of 4.3 pct, says the World Economic Outlook report issued Thursday.
Globally, the report said the world economy is in better shape than projected earlier this year, largely because of emerging and developing economies, DPA reported.
But governments of advanced economies still must walk a precarious tightrope between bail-outs and deficits, according to a revised version of the report, posted on the IMF website.
The IMF predicted global growth of 4.6 per cent, up slightly from the 4.2 pct projected in April and considerably higher than the 3.9 pct it expected in January. Global projections for 2011 remained steady at 4.3 pct.
Strong performances in Asia and Latin America drove the upgraded expectations for 2010, the Washington-based IMF said. Leading the way are China, projected to grow 10.5 pct; India at 9.4 pct; and Brazil at 7.1 pct.
Emerging and developing economies were altogether expected to grow 6.8 pct this year, a half-percentage-point rise over the previous IMF projection. Growth prospects also were favorable for many developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and for commodity producers in all regions, the IMF said.
Commenting on the revision, Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said Thursday: "If you look at the figures from the last three months of activity, they have been rather good and better than expected.
"But at the same time there are clouds. The European tensions on the fiscal side, the solvency of banks are creating uncertainties, increasing risk aversion, decreasing bank lending, so the net effect is a small adjustment."
The IMF assessment of the US economy projected growth of 3.3 pct for 2010 - higher than previously expected. The increase is due to a stronger than anticipated recovery from the recession. The IMF predicted in April growth of 3.1 pct.
Blanchard said the world was unlikely to see a double-dip recession but warned that uncertainties in parts of the eurozone, such as Greece, had the potential to spread, posing difficulties for both financial stability and the economic outlook.
"While we predict the recovery will continue, it is clear that downside risks have risen sharply," he said.
Growth projections for the eurozone remained unchanged for 2010 at 1 pct. They, however, dropped 0.2 percentage points to 1.3 pct for 2011.
Still, the signs remained strong that the world economy has recovered better than expected from its deepest recession in six decades, in large part because of strong government investments in advanced economies.
Echoing concerns at June's G20 summit of the world's largest developed and developing economies, the IMF warned against "overly severe" government spending cuts as countries try to reduce huge deficits caused by their economic stimulus measures.
There are also risks in "uncertainty about regulatory reforms and their potential impact on bank lending" and from possible "renewed weakness in the US property market," the IMF said.
The IMF even adopted a phrase from the G20 summit, saying that "growth-friendly," medium-term fiscal consolidation plans were "urgently needed."
"Most advanced economies do not need to tighten before 2011 because tightening sooner could undermine the fledgling recovery, but they should not add further stimulus," the IMF advised.
It suggested that fiscal cutbacks for 2011 corresponding to about 1.25pct of gross domestic product were "broadly appropriate."
The IMF, however, warned that the fast-growing economies now driving global growth should "start to tighten now" to avoid overheating and inflation.*
In 2011, CIS economies are also expected to grow at an average of 4.3 pct, says the World Economic Outlook report issued Thursday.
Globally, the report said the world economy is in better shape than projected earlier this year, largely because of emerging and developing economies, DPA reported.
But governments of advanced economies still must walk a precarious tightrope between bail-outs and deficits, according to a revised version of the report, posted on the IMF website.
The IMF predicted global growth of 4.6 per cent, up slightly from the 4.2 pct projected in April and considerably higher than the 3.9 pct it expected in January. Global projections for 2011 remained steady at 4.3 pct.
Strong performances in Asia and Latin America drove the upgraded expectations for 2010, the Washington-based IMF said. Leading the way are China, projected to grow 10.5 pct; India at 9.4 pct; and Brazil at 7.1 pct.
Emerging and developing economies were altogether expected to grow 6.8 pct this year, a half-percentage-point rise over the previous IMF projection. Growth prospects also were favorable for many developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and for commodity producers in all regions, the IMF said.
Commenting on the revision, Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said Thursday: "If you look at the figures from the last three months of activity, they have been rather good and better than expected.
"But at the same time there are clouds. The European tensions on the fiscal side, the solvency of banks are creating uncertainties, increasing risk aversion, decreasing bank lending, so the net effect is a small adjustment."
The IMF assessment of the US economy projected growth of 3.3 pct for 2010 - higher than previously expected. The increase is due to a stronger than anticipated recovery from the recession. The IMF predicted in April growth of 3.1 pct.
Blanchard said the world was unlikely to see a double-dip recession but warned that uncertainties in parts of the eurozone, such as Greece, had the potential to spread, posing difficulties for both financial stability and the economic outlook.
"While we predict the recovery will continue, it is clear that downside risks have risen sharply," he said.
Growth projections for the eurozone remained unchanged for 2010 at 1 pct. They, however, dropped 0.2 percentage points to 1.3 pct for 2011.
Still, the signs remained strong that the world economy has recovered better than expected from its deepest recession in six decades, in large part because of strong government investments in advanced economies.
Echoing concerns at June's G20 summit of the world's largest developed and developing economies, the IMF warned against "overly severe" government spending cuts as countries try to reduce huge deficits caused by their economic stimulus measures.
There are also risks in "uncertainty about regulatory reforms and their potential impact on bank lending" and from possible "renewed weakness in the US property market," the IMF said.
The IMF even adopted a phrase from the G20 summit, saying that "growth-friendly," medium-term fiscal consolidation plans were "urgently needed."
"Most advanced economies do not need to tighten before 2011 because tightening sooner could undermine the fledgling recovery, but they should not add further stimulus," the IMF advised.
It suggested that fiscal cutbacks for 2011 corresponding to about 1.25pct of gross domestic product were "broadly appropriate."
The IMF, however, warned that the fast-growing economies now driving global growth should "start to tighten now" to avoid overheating and inflation.*
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