Azernews.Az

The leaders of Georgia's separatist-led regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia did not congratulate Bako Sahakyan on "winning" the so-called "presidential elections" in Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region occupied by Armenia, which clearly indicates changes in Russia's position on the conflict toward the Armenians, an Azerbaijani political analyst says.

"Armenian experts and pro-Armenian Russian politicians didn't express their attitude to this issue either, but that does not change the essence. Their silence is not capable of neutralizing the altered position of Russia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," Mubariz Ahmedoglu, head of the Center of Political Innovations and Technologies, said Wednesday.

Ahmedoglu recalled that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said that though next year Armenia and Azerbaijan will hold presidential elections, Moscow will continue to seek to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

According to the analyst, the Russian model of the Karabakh conflict settlement does not provide for the granting of independence to Nagorno-Karabakh or its becoming part of Armenia.

"Otherwise, it would be a delay-action mine planted under the North Caucasus," Ahmedoglu said. "The only option that can suit the Armenians, taking into account Russia's position, may be a 'model of the special status' proposed by Russia for the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict, but Russia is unlikely to put such a model on the agenda for the sake of Azerbaijan. The option, which Russia will offer, will take into account the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan."

Armenia unleashed a brutal war against Azerbaijan in the early 1990s, leveling territorial claims. A fragile ceasefire was signed in 1994. About 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory, including the Nagorno Karabakh region, has since been occupied by Armenian armed forces. Peace talks have been largely fruitless so far. Russia co-chairs the OSCE Minsk Group mediating the peace process, along with the United States and France.

Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four resolutions on its pullout from Nagorno Karabakh and the seven surrounding regions.