Azernews.Az

BAKU – Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s missing the CIS summit due in Tajikistan’s capital Dushanbe on September 2-3 is said to be linked to the failure of his recent talks on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno Karabakh with Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev in Sochi. Analysts say the move could be a signal that Russia is no longer seen by other countries as a key mediator in the resolution of conflicts, Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper reported.

"Aliyev’s taking such a step is bad news for Russia, as it is losing the image of a mediator in the eyes of its allies and assuming another image – that of Armenia’s lobbyist," says Alexei Malashenko, an analyst with the Carnegie Centre in Moscow. "And the fact that this is being done by Aliyev, a cautious and intelligent politician, shows what he has been driven to."

"Aliyev’s step shows the incapability of the CIS. The proof of that is frequent trade wars and inter-state conflicts within it."

The news that the Azerbaijani leader will not attend the forthcoming CIS summit has raised a number of issues, with the main one being: why did Baku, having confirmed President Aliyev’s participation, reverse its decision on Monday, just three days later. Azerbaijani officials have not yet commented on the reason of the unexpected decision.

Baku’s decision has fostered grounds to conclude that Aliyev is making a demarche, mainly due to the lack of progress in recent talks on settling the long-standing Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

"They say that Baku is discontent with the stance of the mediators [Russian, US and French co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group], particularly their reluctance to put pressure on Armenia, which has been occupying Azerbaijan’s seven large and economically important regions [around Nagorno Karabakh] for about 20 years," Carnegie Centre expert Malashenko commented.

Radio Liberty has quoted Azerbaijani analyst, MP Rasim Musabayov as saying that Baku is not ignoring the CIS summit and will be represented there at the highest level – by Prime Minister Artur Rasizada.

Musabayov said that not only informal but also official CIS functions have turned into "some kind of a club" of the former Soviet republics’ presidents.

"During the meetings held in the past ten years, customary issues of little importance, such as marking another anniversary of the Great Patriotic War [World War II] victory, have been addressed. Therefore, such summits are of interest as a venue for holding [only] bilateral meetings. It is not a secret that a number of presidents join CIS summits in case of a prior agreement about their meeting with the Russian president. In this sense, there is no motivation for President Ilham Aliyev’s participation at the informal CIS summit in Dushanbe.

"The Armenian side’s attempts to push for cessation of Nagorno Karabakh [from Azerbaijan] in some shape or form have led to the lack of prospects for continuing the negotiating process at this point. For this reason, holding a trilateral meeting between Aliyev, Medvedev and [Armenian President Serzh] Sargsyan would be useless and is not planned. So, there is no need [for Aliyev] to go to Dushanbe and waste time," Musabayov said.

Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a lengthy war in the early 1990s that displaced about a million Azerbaijanis. About 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory, including Nagorno Karabakh, has been under the occupation of Armenian armed forces since a fragile ceasefire was signed in 1994. Peace talks have been largely fruitless so far.

The status of Nagorno Karabakh has been a stumbling block in peace talks. Baku says the occupied districts must be freed and the displaced Azerbaijanis returned home, and only after that could the region’s status be determined within Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, while Armenia insists that self-determination is the core principle for a settlement of the dispute.