Azernews.Az

BAKU – Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who was re-elected in 2008, will remain in office at least until 2013, the year of the next presidential election, but slower economic growth may increase "popular dissatisfaction with his rule", according to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit on Tuesday.

However, the EIU expects President Aliyev and his supporters to be able "to retain control of the political scene".

The EIU said in its November 2010 Updater that despite higher global oil prices compared with 2009, the only modest increase in oil production in Azerbaijan - which has traditionally been a main driver of the economy - will result in a sharp slowdown in growth in 2010-11. Growth will pick up to average 4.3% in 2012-15. Annual average inflation will remain in single digits throughout the forecast period, although higher energy prices and growth in consumer demand will ensure that inflationary pressures remain. After remaining stable against the US dollar in 2010-11, higher oil prices and a return of investor risk appetite will put the manat on a modest appreciating trend from 2012. The current account will stay firmly in surplus throughout 2011-15, driven by the substantial trade surplus.

The analysts said crude prices will be at $76 a barrel in 2012-15, which will be a suitable price for Azerbaijan.

The EIU also predicts that the struggle for Azerbaijan’s energy resources between the European Union and Russia will intensify in 2011-15.

According to the report, Azerbaijan ranks 14th among 27 countries in CIS and Eastern Europe for the size of the economy.

But on per capita gross domestic product, it was rated below average – 16th. However, Azerbaijan was termed as the region’s leader on GDP growth rate over the past year.

The South Caucasus republic was rated 21st on the rate of inflation, posting one of the lowest inflation figures in the region in 2009.