Azernews.Az

Last week’s visit to Turkey by the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration chief Ramiz Mehdiyev, an influential politician who rarely pays foreign visits, which came shortly before Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the United States, suggests that the relations between Turkey, the U.S., Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached a critical point, analysts say. The main issue that perturbs the Azerbaijani leadership and people is the expectations that during US President Barack Obama’s meeting with Erdogan in Washington, due April 12-13, the White House leader is likely to put pressure on the Turkish prime minister over reopening Turkey’s shut border with Armenia and ratifying the 2009 accords on normalizing Ankara’s strained relations with Yerevan, without demanding progress in settling the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh. Ariel Cohen, a senior researcher at the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, says the U.S. has already drafted "a roadmap" on mending Turkish-Armenian ties. This enables a conclusion that the US administration is heading to the upcoming negotiations with developed proposals, and the discussions to be held in the U.S. will affect whether or not President Obama will use the "genocide" term in his address to Armenians on April 24, the day considered by Armenians to be the anniversary of the alleged mass killings of their ancestors in the Ottoman Empire during World War I.
Armenia and Turkey have been at odds for decades. In a bid to end the long-standing hostility, the two governments signed protocols in Zurich on October 10, 2009 to establish diplomatic relations and reopen their borders. However, the documents require parliamentary approval, and Ankara has ruled out normalization with Yerevan until the conflict between Armenia, which occupies part of Azerbaijani territory, and Azerbaijan, Turkey’s ally, has been fairly resolved.
Of note, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian has also been invited to Washington to attend a summit on nuclear security and might meet there with the Turkish premier, reports say.
According to reliable sources, a trilateral meeting between Obama, Erdogan and Sarkisian is due in the U.S., which will focus on key regional issues, including the Upper Garabagh conflict. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan has not been invited to the summit, unlike Armenia and Georgia, its South Caucasus neighbors, which points to existing problems in Baku-Washington relations. This is an undesirable development, given that the U.S., despite its distant location, is playing the lead role in the developments ongoing in the turbulent region, including Garabagh settlement and Turkish-Armenian reconciliation.
Considering the above-mentioned, prior to Erdogan’s talks in the U.S., the Azerbaijani government apparently sought -- by means of the presidential chief-of-staff -- to remind Turkey of the magnitude of the Garabagh issue in Ankara’s forging its ties with Yerevan. Baku also tried to enquire about the strategy Ankara will pursue during the forthcoming negotiations with Washington. Therefore, one may presume that the Azerbaijani presidential administration chief was fulfilling the mission of the top-level special envoy during his visit to Turkey who was vested the two following tasks: first, to assure the Turkish leaders that the cool-down in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations has been left behind and that Baku is ready to coordinate its foreign policy with Ankara; secondly, to obtain assurances from Ankara that Prime Minister Erdogan will be defending Baku’s interests in Washington as vigorously as his country’s cause and that Ankara will act as a mediator to defuse tension in US-Azerbaijani relations.

Baku 'satisfied' with Ankara’s stance
While in Ankara, the Azerbaijani presidential administration chief said that Azerbaijan is satisfied with Turkey's long-held position that it will not ratify the 2009 reconciliation accords unless Yerevan withdraws its troops from Azerbaijani territories.
"We should not forget that Armenia covets not only Azerbaijani but also Turkish territory," Mehdiyev told journalists last Friday at the conclusion of a visit by a delegation of senior Azerbaijani officials to Turkey.
Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a lengthy war that ended with the signing of a cease-fire in 1994, but Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and seven other Azerbaijani districts in defiance of international law. Peace talks have been largely fruitless so far but are still ongoing. Mediators from Russia, France and the United States are brokering the peace process through the Minsk Group.
"Azerbaijan is developing its military industry and has built a powerful army. We have the right to liberate our territories from occupation by any means," Mehdiyev added.
Mehdiyev went on to say that Azerbaijan supports Turkey, a fraternal country, in countering efforts exerted by the Armenian lobby and their supporters.
"After the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee passed a decision recognizing the so-called Armenian genocide, President Ilham Aliyev declared that we stand by fraternal Turkey," said Mehdiyev.
Mehdiyev noted that there is no force capable of tarnishing the high-level Azerbaijan-Turkey relations. He also called on some journalists in the two countries to refrain from writing reports defying each other's countries, adding "you should mainly focus on fighting those forces that have hostility towards our countries and peoples."
Mehdiyev pointed out that his three-day official visit to Turkey had accomplished much. He said he had a beneficial exchange of views with Prime Minister Erdogan, Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin and other officials.
According to Ali Hasanov, the head of the Presidential Administration socio-political department who was part of the Azerbaijani delegation that met with Erdogan, Azerbaijan hopes the Garabagh conflict will be high on the agenda of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s upcoming talks in the United States.
"Our expectations are that the US president, as the leader of one of the countries represented in the OSCE Minsk Group, would compel Yerevan to relinquish its unprincipled policy of invasion, press on it with the aim to bring Armenia to a constructive position," Hasanov told journalists Tuesday.
"We hope that a mechanism for influencing the Armenian president will be determined," he said.
Considering the afore-mentioned conclusions, the Azerbaijani leadership hopes that the Turkish premier will advocate for Azerbaijan’s cause as Turkish interests. This, in fact, may prove a daunting task, given a certain cool-down in Baku-Ankara relations. But Azerbaijan lacks any other reliable and influential mediator that could broker its dialog with Washington.
Meanwhile, the Turkish media have elaborated on the strategy that the country’s delegation will adhere to during the negotiations in the U.S. Ankara will reportedly offer to postpone parliamentary approval of the Zurich protocols based upon mutual agreement. Washington will be told that political tension is high in Turkey due to the proposed amendments to the country’s Constitution on reforming the armed forces and the plans on putting these amendments on a nationwide poll; ratifying the accords signed with Armenia at this time could further exacerbate the political situation at home.