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Armenia’s aggressive policy - real danger for entire region

8 October 2020 16:12 (UTC+04:00)
Armenia’s aggressive policy - real danger for entire region

Shabnam Hasanova, Political Analyst, Ph.D. candidate in Political Science

On 24 September 2020 Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, while delivering a speech at general debates of 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly in a video format and on 25 September 2020 while receiving EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar, informed the international community that hostile declarations and provocations of Armenian leadership revealed Armenia's plans on new aggression against Azerbaijan.

The president called on the United Nations, European Commission and whole international community to urge Armenia to prevent its recent provocations and another military aggression. The president also emphasized that Azerbaijan was aware that intensive military training was underway and that Azerbaijani side would defend itself as it had already been done when Armenia launched attacks in direction of Tovuz and many other cases.

Contrary to Azerbaijan's effective communication, under the mediation of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Armenia has deliberately been undermining the format and content of the negotiation process.

The comments by Armenian Defense Minister David Tonoyan at a meeting with the Armenian community in New York on "new war for new territories" instead of "peace for territories" concept was one more admittance by the high-ranking Armenian representative of hostile policy of this country. The declaration by Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan that "Karabakh is Armenia" completely destroyed the mechanism of negotiations. The so-called inauguration of Nagorno-Karabakh's so called leader in the historical Azerbaijani city of Shusha and moving the so-called "parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh” from Khankandi to Shusha were other provocations by Armenia.

Also, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's wife, Anna Hakobyan, appeared with a Kalashnikov automatic rifle in her hands during a military exercise in occupied Nagorno-Karabakh with the Armenian Army at a time of rising clashes. This happened one year after her call “fight for peace”. This also negatively affected the ongoing negotiation process. All this, along with Armenia’s latest aggression on the border are indicators that the official Yerevan is actually not interested in the mediated settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute.

So what happened? On September 27, Armenian armed forces again flagrantly breached the ceasefire agreement engaging in large-scale military actions, subjected to in-depth bombing from large-caliber weapons, mortars and artillery mounts of different calibers of the Azerbaijan Army positions along the total length of the front and residential areas. Besides continually shelling Azerbaijani settlements by using heavy artillery, the Armenian Armed Forces also caused significant damage to the population’s property, infrastructure.

Through these acts Armenia blatantly breaches international humanitarian law, including the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and its obligations in this respect.

Throughout the night of October 3, Azerbaijan's Terter city and Sahlaabad, Gazyan, Gapanli, Qaynaq, Askipara, Husanli villages of the district, Ayag Garvand, Imamgulubeyli, Garadagli, Tazakend villages of Aghdam district and Muganli, Qiyameddinli, Ranjbarlar and Tapgaragoyunlu villages of Goranboy district were subjected to heavy artillery fire by the Armenian Armed Forces. Decisive response measures were being taken by the Azerbaijani army. Unfortunately, the Armenian army not only strikes at Azerbaijan's villages, but also attacks local and international media representatives on the frontline conducting their professional duty.

Despite Armenia’s shelling due to the successful operations by Azerbaijani Armed forces 6 villages in the Fuzuli-Jarbayil direction and Madagiz (recently renamed by Azerbaijan to Sugovushan) were liberated from the occupation. On the same day, the Azerbaijani Army liberated several more villages in Tartar, Jabrayil and Fuzuli district and city of Jabrayil and several villages of the district from the occupation.

On October 4, the Armenian Armed Forces again blatantly breached the norms and principles of international law, the 1949 Geneva Conventions and their Additional Protocols, the decisions and resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, intentionally shelled the civilians of Azerbaijan, shelled the heavily populated areas of Ganja. One person was killed and 32 were injured as a result of rocket and artillery shelling in Ganja, the second largest city in Azerbaijan. Intense battles continue along the entire front. Azerbaijani residential areas in different directions of the front have been subjected to heavy artillery and missile fire from Armenia.

The other side of the issue is the information warfare. Thus, the battle is not only in the trenches, but also inside the information space. Currently the Armenian news machine by producing various, baseless fake news is trying deceive the world community. For instance, all the allegations that Turkey is involved as a party to the dispute spread by the Armenian side are misleading.

Actually, Turkey is taking a stabilizing role in the region and does not engage in this conflict. Firstly, by doing so, Armenia aims artificially reduce the combat capability of the Azerbaijani Army, which is now fulfilling its task of restoring its territorial integrity with dignity. In addition, Armenia is trying to establish the perception that the crisis is rising and in order to justify its aggression, this country is attempting to include as many countries as possible.

Another fake news of the Armenian side is the alleged involvement of mercenaries from Syria in the Azerbaijani Army, which was directly and biased by the Armenian propaganda and is constantly circulating on various websites and in the media. By placing terrorists from Syria and Lebanon in Nagorno-Karabakh, it is Armenia itself that is grossly violating the norms of international law, including the Fourth Geneva Convention. Azerbaijan has a well-trained army and a large mobilization reserve. To be more precise, with a population of 10 million versus 2 million in Armenia, Azerbaijan does not need human resources.

The fakes don't end there - the "F-16 aircraft of the Turkish Air Force shot down an Armenian Air Force plane Su-25". Azerbaijani side officially declared that the F-16 aircraft of the Turkish Air Force does not participate in operations in any way. President Ilham Aliyev said that taking into account modern technologies' availability and satellite observation currently it is very difficult to conceal anything.

Therefore, it is another provocation by Armenian side. What is more, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu declared that Azerbaijan did not ask for Turkey's support. Turkey has only a moral support to Azerbaijan.

Furthermore, Pakistan demonstrated resolute position on the issue of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and because of Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijan’s lands Pakistan has not recognized Armenia. The General Secretariat of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation also made a statement that it strongly condemned the aggressions and persistent attacks by the Armenian Armed Forces, restated its support with Azerbaijan and urged for the enforcement of the related resolutions of the United Nations Security Council.

Also, in his letter to President Ilham Aliyev, Sefik Dzaferovic, Chairman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, firmly condemned the attacks by Armenia, and demonstrated obvious respect to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

While waiting neutrality in the process by France as one of the co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group unfortunately French President Macron seemed to assure Armenia wider support emphasizing that "I say to Armenia and to the Armenians that France will play its role."

Macron’s statements were negatively accepted by Azerbaijani government and condemned by society.

During his interview to Al Jazeera TV, President Ilham Aliyev said that the Minsk Group co-chairs should proceed on working together if all of them keep neutrality. He added that the co-chairs should not make counter-productive statements and which are demonstrating a kind of change in the position in neutrality.

*Shabnam Hasanova is a Political Analyst, Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and lecturer at “SABAH” groups, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (Baku, Azerbaijan). She is a researcher at Turkey Energy Strategy and Policy Research Centre, Ankara, Turkey. She holds an MPP from ADA University, as well as a Bachelor of International Relations from the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

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