Azernews.Az

BAKU – The International Monetary Fund has revised up its forecast on Azerbaijan’s economic growth in 2011 and 2012.

The country’s gross domestic product is expected to grow 2.8 percent this year, up from 1.8 percent predicted last October, and by 2.5 percent next year, says the World Economic Outlook report, posted on the IMF’s website on Monday.

In 2016, the fast-growing South Caucasus republic is expected to post GDP growth of 2.8 pct, though the IMF in its previous report said the growth rate was likely to drop to 0.9 pct in 2015.

Inflation is predicted at 10.3 pct in Azerbaijan in 2011, up from the previously predicted 5 pct. The figure is expected to decrease to 7.5 pct in 2012. In 2016, inflation is estimated at 5 pct.

According to the IMF, Azerbaijan will post a balance of payments surplus worth 28.4 pct of the GDP in 2011, up from the previously forecast 22.2 pct, 24.2 pct in 2012 and 17.2 pct in 2016.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also recently increased its forecast for Azerbaijan’s 2011 GDP growth - to 5.8 pct from a previous projection of 3.5 percent in January. According to the Asian Development Outlook 2011 report, the bank expects the country’s growth to remain at 5.8 pct in 2012. Growth of 8 pct is foreseen in the non-oil sector in 2011 and 2012.

The ADB raised its forecast on inflation expected in Azerbaijan in 2011 to 7.5 pct from 4 pct as global price pressures increase. In 2012, inflation is predicted at 7 pct.

The ADB said that in 2011 and 2012 Azerbaijan will be the leader in Central Asia on the balance of payments surplus. The surplus will equal those of Hong Kong and South Korea.

The Azerbaijani government predicts GDP growth at 3.8 pct in 2011 and at 6.4 pct in 2012.

Azerbaijan’s GDP increased 5 pct in 2010, while inflation made up 7.9 pct. A positive foreign trade balance amounted to $14.725bn, or 1.7 times over the 2009 figure. Surplus in the balance of payments reached $15.039bn, or 47.8 pct over 2009.