Dollar holds advance as traders bet data will justify rate hike
By Bloomberg
The dollar held gains after a gauge of the currency rose to almost a four-month high as investors bet economic data will justify higher interest rates this year.
The greenback remained higher against most of its major peers before reports which economists predict will show that filings for U.S. unemployment declined, while orders for durable goods rose. The euro strengthened after the Greek parliament voted through a second package of creditors’ demands as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras urged lawmakers to stop the country being forced out of the currency group.
“The dollar strength trend is continuing,” said Tsutomu Soma, department manager of fixed-income business at Rakuten Securities Inc. “Economic data aren’t bad, so money is flowing into the dollar on rate-hike speculation.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency versus 10 major peers, was at 1,206.27 as of 11:47 a.m. in Tokyo from 1,207.85 in New York, which was near the highest close since March 19 set on Monday.
The greenback was little changed at 123.98 yen after advancing to 124.48 on Tuesday, the highest since June 10. The euro climbed 0.2 percent to $1.0951 and 0.2 percent to 135.78 yen.
New Zealand’s dollar advanced after the Reserve Bank cut its main interest rate and dropped references to the currency’s strength being unjustified.
The kiwi rose as much as 1.2 percent before trading 0.9 percent higher at 66.29 U.S. cents.
Kiwi Recovery
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand trimmed its official cash rate to 3 percent Thursday from 3.25 percent. Of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the decision, 18 forecast it correctly, while Capital Economics called for a reduction to 2.75 percent.
The central bank kept an easing bias, saying that “at this point, some further easing seems likely.”
“This latest statement does not really lock in a September move,” BNP Paribas SA strategists Daniel Katzive and Vassili Serebriakov wrote in a note dated July 23. There is scope for the kiwi to recover versus the Australian dollar and euro in the near term, they wrote.
U.S. futures contracts show a 40 percent likelihood that the Fed will move in September and a 74 percent chance of a December increase. The Fed announces its policy decision on July 29.
“The greenback is likely to stay around current levels ahead of the Fed’s meeting as markets haven’t yet fully priced in a September rate hike,” said Yuji Saito, executive director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole SA in Tokyo.
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