Emerging stocks drop as focus turns to Fed, Iran weighs on oil
By Bloomberg
Emerging-market stocks ended a three-day rally as investor attention shifted from Greece to the timing of U.S. interest-rate increases. The ruble fell with oil after Iran and world powers reached a deal to end sanctions.
China’s Cnooc Ltd. and Russia’s OAO Lukoil led declines in energy stocks and the ruble lost 0.6 percent. Oil slid the most in a week in London on bets the nuclear deal will enable Iran to ship crude to an oversupplied market. Gubre Fabrikalari TAS, a Turkish fertilizer maker which has operations in Iran, surged to a 10-year high. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.2 percent before data that may show China’s economy slowed.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased 0.3 percent to 940.22 at 1:21 p.m. in London. U.S. retail sales data are due Tuesday and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver her congressional testimony this week as speculation grows that the Greek bailout may remove the need to delay raising interest rates. The deal with Iran caps two years of tough diplomacy with the biggest breakthrough in relations in decades.
“The Fed risk remains relevant and might indeed come more to the forefront after the Greek deal,” Maarten-Jan Bakkum, a senior developing-country strategist at NN Investment Partners in The Hague, said by e-mail. “Also important remains the China risk. The Iran deal is keeping downward pressure on oil. This is negative for Russia and other oil producers.”
The agreement will enable Iran to restore about 500,000 barrels a day by mid-2016 and an additional 500,000 a day by the end of next year, according to Commerzbank AG. Crude slid as much as 2.5 percent to $50.88 per barrel in New York.
‘Great Opportunities’
Lukoil slumped 1.7 percent, leading the Micex Index lower in Moscow. Sasol Ltd., the world’s largest producer of motor fuel from coal, slid as much as 3.1 percent before trading 0.6 percent lower in Johannesburg. China’s Cnooc Ltd. fell 1.8 percent in Hong Kong.
The Tehran Stock Exchange’s benchmark TEDPIX Index advanced 0.3 percent at the close, the highest since April. Tamin Petroleum & Petrochemical Investment Co. was the biggest contributor to gains, with a 3.2 percent increase.
“Iran has always been a market with great opportunities waiting for an opening,” Rouzbeh Pirouz, the executive chairman of Tehran-based Turquoise Partners, said by e-mail. “With this deal in place and subsequent removal of sanctions, Iran could turn into an engine of economic growth for the whole region.”
Equities in Turkey, a net oil importer, added 0.7 percent. Gubretas surged as much as 17 percent. The Turkish company owns 49 percent of Razi Petrochemical Co., an Iranian producer of fertilizers and feedstock.
Lira Rallies
The lira appreciated 0.6 percen. An index of 20 developing- nation currencies was little changed. The premium investors demand to hold emerging-market debt over U.S. Treasuries was unchanged at 341 basis points, down from 363 a week ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.
Five out of 10 industry groups in the MSCI emerging-markets measure fell. Samsung Electronics Co. sank 3.2 percent to a seven-month low in Seoul as technology companies retreated.
The Shanghai Composite fell for the first time in four days, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 1.4 percent. China’s second-quarter economic growth may have slowed to 6.8 percent from 7 percent in the first three months, according to a median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
ZTE Corp. surged 16 percent in Hong Kong after announcing a plan to spend as much as 1 billion yuan ($161 million) buying back shares in China.
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