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By Bloomberg

Oil rose for a fourth day after the U.S. government predicted that the shale boom that’s swelled the nation’s production to a record is slowing.

Futures advanced as much as 1.3 percent in New York. Output from tight-rock formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken will fall 57,000 barrels a day in May, the Energy Information Administration said Monday, the first time the agency projected a decline since it began reporting monthly data in 2013. Talks between world powers and Iran over a nuclear deal may need to be extended for a third time beyond a June 30 deadline.

Oil is gaining amid speculation that an end to the U.S. production boom and a delay to any recovery in Iranian supplies will ease a global glut that drove prices lower by almost half in 2014. Prices are still down almost 2 percent this year on immediate signs that crude inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer, are expanding further from a record level.

“Any news of a drop in production clearly adds to a more constructive outlook,” Michael McCarthy, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone. “The market is drifting higher on light volumes.”

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery climbed as much as 67 cents to $52.58 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $52.42 at 12:34 p.m. Singapore time. The contract rose 27 cents to $51.91 on Monday, the highest close since April 7. Total volume was about 49 percent below the 100-day average.

U.S. Supply

Brent for May settlement, which expires Wednesday, advanced as much as 57 cents, or 1 percent, to $58.50 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The more active June future was 55 cents higher at $59.59. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $6.03 to WTI.

The monthly production forecasts published Monday by the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, cover the yield from major plays that accounted for 90 percent of domestic output growth from 2011 to 2012.

The U.S. oil boom has been driven by a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which has unlocked shale formations from Texas to North Dakota. Amid the price slide, companies have idled the number of active rigs to the fewest in more than four years.

Crude stockpiles probably increased by 3.5 million barrels through April 10, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts before a weekly EIA report on Wednesday. Supplies have climbed since January to 482.4 million, the highest level in records dating back to August 1982.

Nuclear Pact

U.S. lawmakers skeptical about a nuclear deal with Iran said Secretary of State John Kerry’s plea for more time to complete an agreement did little to dissuade them from insisting that Congress must review any final plan. Officials from both countries have sparred over the terms of a framework accord announced April 2 that would curb the Persian Gulf nation’s ability to enrich uranium in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.

Iran could boost crude exports by 1 million barrels a day within a few months of penalties being lifted, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said March 16. Shipments have decreased by half to about 1 million barrels a day after sanctions were imposed in mid-2012. It tied Kuwait last month as the third- largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a separate Bloomberg survey showed.