Azernews.Az

By Bloomberg

As OAO Rosneft pulls together funds to repay $7.1 billion of loans due this Friday, some investors say it’s the moment to buy the Russian oil company’s bonds after the best week for crude in almost four years.

“Now is a good time,” Dmitry Postolenko, who helps manage about $3 billion in Russian debt at Kapital Asset Management in Moscow, said by e-mail on Feb. 6. “Paying off the loan will wipe off a big chunk of its total debt.”

While Postolenko doesn’t hold the energy producer’s bonds, favoring debt from OAO Lukoil and OAO Gazprom, he plans on buying short-dated notes for clients tolerant of the “risks.” Rosneft’s March 2017 dollar securities jumped last week, with the yield sliding 1.48 percentage points, and the March 2022 bonds staged their biggest gain on record in the period.

Even as oil surged 9.1 percent and traders expressed confidence the loan tranche will be paid, the Moscow-based producer’s remaining debt and inability to raise funds abroad because of sanctions helped drive yield spreads over government bonds to the widest since Dec. 16. While Rosneft offers a short- term buying opportunity now, better moments will appear over the next two months, according to Lutz Roehmeyer who oversees $1.1 billion at Landesbank Berlin Investment GmbH.

Minsk Talks

This week’s repayment is the largest foreign-debt obstacle Rosneft must cross in 2015, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It must repay a $3 billion ruble-denominated loan due in June and $643 million of dollar debt in August. The company must find resources for these obligations amid a struggle for profit.

With more than $40 billion of net debt as of Sept. 30, state-led Rosneft is the most indebted relative to earnings among large oil producers except Brazil’s Petroleo Brasileiro SA. Borrowings surged after its $55 billion acquisition of TNK- BP in 2013. A revaluation of the dollar debt raised for that purchase contributed to Rosneft’s posting zero net income in the third quarter. The ruble weakened 46 percent last year, increasing the local-currency value of foreign loans and bonds.

Along with the need for cash comes the threat of deepening sanctions, unless diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict gain momentum. The leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine agreed to push ahead with talks on a possible peace deal, possibly at a summit in Minsk, Belarus, on Feb. 11, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert said in an e-mailed statement Sunday.

Ratings Watch

Some investors are waiting for Moody’s Investors Service to decide on its rating for the sovereign before taking a closer look at Rosneft. Standard & Poor’s downgraded Russia to junk in January and Moody’s, which rates the government at the lowest investment grade, has indicated it may follow suit. S&P also lowered its rating for Rosneft to one level below investment grade on Feb. 4.

“The longer Russian banks are sanctioned and have no capital market access, the worse the situation gets,” Roehmeyer said.

Rosneft’s press service declined to comment this week’s loan payment when contacted by Bloomberg News on Friday. The company may convert rubles the central bank if it runs short of dollars to cover the loan, according to Roehmeyer.

Foreign Exchange

Rosneft has dismissed speculation that it will change 400 billion rubles ($6 billion) raised in a bond sale into foreign currencies to pay off debts. The company said it will use the money for production programs and projects, according to a statement on its website.

“If Rosneft pays off the loan, it will deal with the largest of their foreign-exchange refinancing needs for this year,” Olga Budovnits, a credit analyst at Union Bancaire Privee in Zurich, said by e-mail on Feb. 6. “I would prefer to wait for Moody’s decision on the sovereign before adding any new exposure.”

Even after last week’s rally, the company’s bonds yield almost double the level before Putin’s incursion into Crimea in March. They also yield about three percentage points more than the bonds of Petrobras, which held twice as much net debt as of Sept. 30. The yield on the 2017 bond climbed 12 basis points by 11:52 a.m. in Moscow as Brent crude slipped 0.5 percent.

Kapital’s Postolenko said there’s no question Rosneft will make good on its debt.

“This year, the Russian government will help the company with refinancing for sure,” he said. “It is a key strategic asset.”