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By Bloomberg

Treasuries rose, with 10-year notes halting a slide that sent them to their biggest loss since March last week, as investors sought a haven following a poll showing most voters in Scotland want independence.

U.S. government securities are heading for their biggest annual advance since 2011, supported by demand for the safest securities because of unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East. Appetite for haven assets increased after the Scottish poll showed the percentage of voters in favor of independence from the U.K. rose to 51 percent less than two weeks before the vote. The U.S. plans to sell $61 billion of notes and bonds during three days starting tomorrow.

"The referendum is creating a lot of uncertainty," said Yusuke Ito, a bond investor in Tokyo at Mizuho Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $38 billion. "There might be some flow from U.K. Treasuries to U.S. Treasuries."

The U.S. 10-year yield fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.44 percent as of 7:16 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 2.375 percent note due in August 2024 rose 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, 99 13/32.

The pound has slumped 2.6 percent against the dollar during the past week, the biggest loss of 16 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The YouGov Plc poll for the Sunday Times showed opponents of Scottish independence dropped to 49 percent when undecided respondents were excluded. The vote will take place on Sept. 18.

Manufacturing Quickens

Treasuries fell last week as a U.S. report showed manufacturing accelerated and as the European Central Bank cut interest rates and announced an asset-buying plan to spur economic growth. Benchmark 10-year yields increased 12 basis points, the most since the period ended March. 7.

For 2014, securities in the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index returned 3.9 percent through Sept. 5, set for the best annual gain since 2011.

The U.S. is scheduled to sell $27 billion of three-year notes tomorrow, $21 billion of 10-year debt the following day and $13 billion of 30-year bonds on Sept. 11.

Morgan Stanley, one of the 22 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed, cut its forecast for how much it predicts Treasury yields will increase this year, citing geopolitics and the near-term European outlook.

The New York-based company reduced its estimate for U.S. 10-year yields at Dec. 31 to 2.85 percent from 3 percent in a report dated yesterday from Matthew Hornbach and Rashique Rahman.

Elusive Economy

One of the biggest reasons bond investors are so confident the Fed won't need to move aggressively to raise rates and trigger a bond-market selloff is because sustained improvement in the U.S. labor market remains elusive.

Employers added 142,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said last week, the fewest this year and below even the most pessimistic estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Since the end of 2008, interest-bearing Treasuries of all maturities have returned 14.6 percent, data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch show. That's equal to $1 trillion in price gains and interest from the securities over that span.

Japan's 10-year yield was little changed today at 0.53 percent, while Australia's fell one basis point to 3.46 percent.