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The geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic dynamics in the South Caucasus are on the verge of a transformative shift. The upcoming meeting in Washington between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, facilitated by US President Donald Trump, signals the promising dawn of a new phase that could reshape long-standing political realities in the region. This pivotal encounter not only paves the way for a potential peace agreement between these historically rival nations but also underscores the United States' commitment to emerging as a key strategic actor in the South Caucasus. Now is the time for us to recognise the significance of this moment and support efforts that could lead to lasting stability and dialogue in a region that has experienced decades of conflict.

Now, let us take a brief look at the history of the processes and their possible implications.

Azerbaijan’s conditions for signing a peace agreement remain unchanged, as President Ilham Aliyev recently stated at the III Shusha Global Media Forum: the abolition of the OSCE Minsk Group and amendments to Armenia’s Constitution to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan. While constitutional amendments are expected to be addressed in the longer term, the decision to abolish the Minsk Group can be made now. Azerbaijan has no aggressive plans against Armenia. Baku is negotiating with the current legitimate leadership in Yerevan. This reassertion of the peace agenda is not a new development but a continuation of a process that began when Azerbaijan presented its “five basic principles” for a peace agreement in spring 2022.

All agreements between Azerbaijan and Armenia are being reached in a bilateral format, an approach proposed by Baku and achieved despite resistance from Armenia and its backers. The expectation on communications remains firm: the Zangazur Corridor must operate under a special regime, with international oversight to ensure non-obstruction and security.

The upcoming meeting will mark the first direct encounter between the presidents of Azerbaijan and the United States. It presents an opportunity to define the bilateral agenda. Meetings with Donald Trump often bring surprises, whether pleasant or unpleasant, that will be revealed in due course. What is already clear is that President Trump has publicly endorsed Ilham Aliyev’s positions on social media.

A few months before the US elections, Azerbaijani President openly stated that he shared Trump’s political views, a bold stance when the Democratic administration still held power in Washington. During Trump’s presidency, the two leaders exchanged letters and phone calls, and Trump’s personal envoy visited Baku. In modern diplomacy, personal relationships often play a decisive role.

Following this visit, plans are in motion to establish a Strategic Working Group to draft a Strategic Partnership Charter, with priorities in energy, trade, logistics, artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and security and defence, notably free from the ideological undertones of the Biden–Blinken foreign policy approach. For these plans to be fully realised, however, the outdated and unjust Section 907 amendment must be repealed.

Azerbaijan has always favoured pragmatic relations with the US, and now it is time for pragmatism to prevail in Washington as well. Once again, we are witnessing President Aliyev’s ability to ‘feel the time.

Why is this meeting so significant, and who stands to gain the most from it?

Russia, which has long been a key player in the peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, is no longer involved in the process. Both countries have shown that they no longer wish for Russia to take on this role, primarily due to its recent strained relations with Azerbaijan and its insufficient support for the Armenian authorities. The meeting in Abu Dhabi in June clearly underscored this shift.

Within the framework of the Washington talks, a joint declaration is set to be signed, confirming the peaceful intent of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The sides will jointly appeal to the OSCE for the dissolution of the Minsk Group and commit to “taking additional steps to achieve the signing and ratification” of the peace agreement. This fulfils the first of Azerbaijan’s two core conditions and sets the groundwork for the second — amending Armenia’s Constitution. Ratification will be tied to the outcome of a 2026 referendum in Armenia.

Significantly, these developments are occurring with the direct participation of the President of the United States, a co-chair of the now-defunct Minsk Group and a figure with influence over most of its former member states.

The agreed text of the peace treaty, already initialled by the foreign ministers, ensures that the negotiated provisions will remain intact. Initialling is not signing, but it is a decisive step forward.

The United States is working to prevent potential conflicts in the South Caucasus and to facilitate the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war in the post-Soviet region. This approach will involve a combination of negotiation and competition with Russia. Both Russia and the US are likely to express their concerns regarding each other's future expansionist ambitions, particularly in relation to Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. Armenia will serve as the context for this dynamic.

The Bigger Picture: Transport Corridor

The joint declaration also confirms Armenia’s agreement to provide unhindered movement between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. The Zangazur Corridor will operate under a special regime, a sovereign decision by Armenia made in agreement with the United States. International guarantees for security and non-obstruction, long advocated by President Aliyev, will now be implemented under a US–Armenia framework.

The primary issue we've consistently highlighted in our articles regarding the restoration of communications and the opening of the Zangazur Corridor is that this initiative should be considered from a broader perspective. This corridor will establish a land connection with the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, facilitating freedom of movement. Moreover, the United States will gain a strategic foothold in the region and, by acting as a guarantor, will help prevent potential conflicts and resolve the ongoing stalemate in negotiations.

For Armenia, this project offers a chance to break free from years of economic isolation. Positioned between Asia and Europe, the country stands to significantly enhance its economic prospects by allowing this corridor to be developed. This initiative will open the door to various energy and infrastructure projects, leading to substantial improvements in Armenia's economic well-being.

The United States is closely monitoring not only Russia's ambitions in the South Caucasus but also China's activities in the region. China may become a reliable mediator between Baku and Yerevan in the future. Consequently, the US prioritises maintaining diplomatic and defence support for Yerevan.

The noticeable positive trend in Türkiye's relations with the United States over the past two years also has the potential to affect Baku-Washington relations. The US strategy regarding Azerbaijan is as follows: if Washington's objectives align with those of Azerbaijan, the cooperation among Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and the US could serve to protect Armenia from Russian threats. This situation is particularly significant in light of the upcoming elections in Armenia next year. To achieve this, the US must take into account Azerbaijan's demands, especially regarding the Zangazur corridor.

President Aliyev’s consistent peace leadership

President Ilham Aliyev has shaped and driven the peace agenda with deliberate consistency. From restoring Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within international law to initiating a peace deal with Armenia, finalising the treaty text, and securing a principled position on the opening of communications, his approach has been strategic and patient.

This progress has been achieved despite obstacles “on the ground” and in the UN Security Council. Throughout, President Aliyev has shown restraint, defended Azerbaijan’s perspective, and reframed external proposals positively, without succumbing to threats and blackmail from political figures. This meeting will highlight the failure of those figures. Today, many disputes of the past have been resolved, and the focus is shifting toward a future built on regional stability and mutually recognised sovereignty. We can even say that the peace agreement will be finalized today.

If the United States can broker a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it will be able to claim a leadership role in resolving a conflict that has eluded Russia, the European Union, the United Nations, and others for more than three decades.